Three Iranian tankers exit U.S. blockade for first time in months as shipowners eye Hormuz in 'wary disbelief'

At least three Iranian tankers carrying nearly five million barrels of crude oil have exited the U.S. Navy blockade in the Strait of Hormuz in the first such outbound shipment in two months, as shipowners cautiously reposition ahead of a U.S.-Iran deal signing in Geneva on Friday.

Two supertankers named Diona and Hero 2 — both owned by the National Iranian Tanker Company and under U.S. sanctions — made it through the U.S. Navy blockade perimeter, carrying a combined total of 3.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil, according to shipping data provided by Kpler.

A third Iran-linked tanker carrying 1 million barrels of Iranian crude exited the blockade line on Wednesday, according to Kpler.

"Their apparent departure from the blockade suggests that other Iranian-trading tankers are also preparing to resume trading," said Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior maritime intelligence analyst at Windward.

The U.S. and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Monday to end the nearly four-month war, with a formal signing ceremony to take place on Friday in Geneva. The pact, whose details have not been disclosed, is expected to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and waive sanctions on Iran's oil sales.

Washington would allow Tehran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel once the agreement is signed this week, in exchange for Iran's commitment to curb its nuclear program, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world's oil flowed before the war, has been effectively shut for the duration of the conflict. The U.S. Navy has blockaded Iranian ports, and Iran has targeted vessels linked to nations it deemed adversaries, stranding hundreds of ships and disrupting global energy flows.

The prospect of a reopening prompted some shipowners — battered by months of surging freight costs and war-risk insurance premiums — to begin repositioning vessels toward Gulf ports in anticipation of a surge in restocking demand, while most are more cautious and continued to hold back.

"The maritime sector is treating the news with something closer to wary disbelief than celebration," said Lloyd's List Intelligence.

Insurers are holding firm on high war-risk premiums, demanding "solid evidence" that the waterway will remain safe, Lloyd's analysts said. "While a pause in hostilities will free stranded mariners and boost tanker and bulk markets, the sector sees this as a fragile reprieve rather than a return to normality," the analysts said in a client note on Tuesday.

But some very large crude carriers (VLCC) owners are looking to gain a "first-mover advantage," positioning tankers toward the Middle East Gulf, while others plan to hold back, according to Lloyd's.

Dozens of VLCCs are sailing from the South China Sea and across the Indian Ocean toward the United Arab Emirates ports, where at least 30 ships were already at anchor, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward on Wednesday.

For now, traffic through the strait is likely to remain minimal with both blockades remaining in effect until the deal is formally signed on Friday. The U.S. Navy has reminded the industry that "nothing has changed and will not until the agreement is signed," said Tim Wilkins, managing director of Intertanko, an association of independent tankers.

The scale of the backlog is significant. Kpler estimated 118 laden tankers could exit the region within 15 days after the deal is signed, but the surge of departing ships will likely be a one-time event, rather than a durable recovery of traffic.

"Most shipowners appear to be cautiously awaiting more details before planning new transits of the Strait of Hormuz," said Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO. "They will seek reassurance that transits are not only permitted but also safe before sending their ships through the strait."