State Pension payments could be 'frozen' as triple lock comes under threat

The long-term future of the State Pension Triple Lock is once again under scrutiny, as experts warn it may no longer be sustainable amid rising costs and an ageing population. Under the Triple Lock policy, the State Pension increases each year in line with whichever is highest: average earnings growth, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, or 2.5%.

While the mechanism has been a lifeline for pensioners during inflationary periods, maintaining it is putting increasing pressure on the public purse. The cost of the State Pension is projected to hit £145.6 billion for the 2025/26 financial year alone.

Despite Labour’s recent pledge not to introduce means-testing for State Pension eligibility, financial experts say reform is inevitable.

Claire Trott, Head of Advice at St. James’s Place, warned that freezing State Pension increases and expanding access to Pension Credit could become a pragmatic solution.

“There are options such as freezing the State Pension and increasing access to Pension Credit, which might be a more realistic and better-targeted route,” she said.

While freezing payments may seem extreme, Trott noted it could help limit costs while still ensuring those most in need receive additional support.

Another possible option, she added, is raising the State Pension age. A move that has already been set to take place gradually over the coming years.

The current retirement age of 66 will rise to 67 by 2028, with a further increase to 68 expected between 2044 and 2046.

Meanwhile, almost 13 million State Pensioners across the UK are keeping a close eye on inflation and wage growth figures, which will determine next year’s payment rise.

With current earnings growth at 5.5%, the Triple Lock is expected to deliver another substantial increase.

If this projection holds, from April 2026 pensioners on the full New State Pension could receive £242.90 per week, equating to £12,630.80 annually. Those on the full Basic State Pension would see their weekly payments rise to £186.25, or £9,679.80 per year.

The official uprating will be confirmed later this year during the Autumn Budget, following the release of CPI data in October and wage growth statistics in August.

While the next increase is likely to go ahead as expected, the debate around the future of the Triple Lock continues, raising questions about how the UK can balance fairness for pensioners with long-term affordability.