Shipping rebounds in Strait of Hormuz one week after U.S.-Iran deal – but fragile confidence threatens recovery

Shipping traffic is recovering a week after the U.S. and Iran signed a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but a renewed attack on a cargo ship Thursday threw fresh uncertainty over the fragile passage, halting the United Nations' evacuation plan and sending some tankers into reverse.

In the week following the ceasefire announcement, 125 transits were recorded between June 15-21, marking the highest weekly total since the war began in late February, as tankers rushed to move stored Gulf crude before the 60-day truce window expires.

On June 24, AXS Marine recorded 62 commercial vessel crossings, the highest single-day count since the war started, but only equivalent to 53% of the traffic on the same day last year.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Wednesday declared that all ships must use only its northern route and comply with Iranian routing instructions. Hours later, the Ever Lovely — a Singapore-flagged Evergreen container ship — was struck on its starboard side by a projectile off the Omani coast. A U.S. official said the IRGC had carried out the strike. It was the first attack on a cargo vessel since the ceasefire took effect.

Located in the gulf between Oman and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is recognized as one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. The narrow waterway typically handles around 20% of the world's oil traffic.

Shipowners are left navigating two competing authorities with no agreed rules, with a northern corridor under Iranian control and a southern passage through Omani waters. The standard pre-war commercial lane remains closed due to mines.

Iran warned it would take action against ships not using its northern route or coordinating with Iranian authorities. The U.S. and Oman backed a separate southern corridor, with Oman issuing navigational guidance and American Navy providing naval oversight.

Companies are confronted with a difficult choice: take the risk to transit, or hold back and potentially cede ground to rivals willing to take that risk.

Bruce Tan, a Singapore-based electronics manufacturer who held back deliveries to Middle East clients for four months, said he had begun moving goods through the corridor again, but only in small batches, in case the Strait closes again. Tan is also routing some orders through alternative corridors as a hedge against another closure.

Aristidis Alafouzos, CEO of Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp, a crude oil shipping company headquartered in Greece, said he doesn't expect Thursday's attack on a ship in the Gulf of Oman to "significantly change" the trend of transits through the waterway.

"We've seen a large increase, especially on the crude oil passages, and I think this is set to continue and maybe this one-off event isn't enough to really disrupt the recent events of the large exports of Kuwaiti and Emirati crude oil from the Gulf," Alafouzos told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Friday.

"The one big missing factor is the Saudis. For now, we haven't seen them export almost anything from inside the Arabian Gulf and everything is coming from Yanbu in the Red Sea."

Analysts have warned that passage through the waterway remains risky, and shipping companies are pushing for clarity on safe navigation, as well as the likelihood of tolls and how sanctions could interplay with whatever passages are open in the future.

"We don't know how much of the straits is mined — it can be very dangerous going through that," said Tim Huxley, CEO of Singapore-based Mandarin Shipping, which manages 50 vessels globally and has kept all of them out of the strait.

"You've got this debate about who is authorizing ships to go through, what level of control the Iranians have on one side, the Americans have on the other. A lot of ship owners are just saying: I'm going to wait and see how these talks progress before I commit to sending a ship, its cargo, and most importantly, its crew," Huxley said.

"Insurance premiums are still very high on ships and cargoes going through the straits," Huxley said. "Until there is a more concrete set of guidelines on safe navigation, people are going to be very reticent to go through."

Han Shen Lin, China country director of The Asia Group, was more blunt about the predicament facing corporate executives.

"Boardrooms aren't asking about cargo safety — they're asking if it is insurable. War-risk premiums have shot up from 0.05% to over 0.7% of hull value per transit. That's not a risk premium, that's a serious business model stress test," Han said.

"One vessel seizure doesn't just cost you the cargo — it costs you the client relationship, the insurance renewal, and your board's confidence. Speed is worthless without survivability," Han said.