Consumer sentiment nears lowest level ever as worries build over shutdown

Worries over the government shutdown surged in the early part of November, pushing consumer sentiment to its lowest in more than three years and just off its worst level ever, according to a University of Michigan survey released Friday.

The university's monthly Index of Consumer Sentiment posted a reading of 50.3 for the month, indicating a decline of 6.2% on the month and about 30% from a year ago. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 53.0 after October's 53.6. Sentiment was last this low in June 2022 as inflation hovered around its highest level in 40 years. November's reading was the second lowest going back to at least 1978.

Concerns about the ongoing impasse in Washington topped consumers' fears, outweighing a boost in sentiment from new record highs in stock prices, said survey Director Joanne Hsu.

"With the federal government shutdown dragging on for over a month, consumers are now expressing worries about potential negative consequences for the economy," Hsu said. "This month's decline in sentiment was widespread throughout the population, seen across age, income, and political affiliation."

Other measures in the survey painted a similar picture.

The current conditions index slid to 52.3, a drop of nearly 11% from last month and the lowest in its history going back to 1951, while the future expectations measure fell to 49.0, down 2.6%. On a year-ago basis, the two measures respectively slumped 18.2% and 36.3%.

"Across the economy, segments of the population are increasingly dealing with tighter financial conditions," said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at consumer finance site NerdWallet. "That's certainly true for federal workers and people dependent on food assistance from the federal government. But it's also likely increasingly true for middle income Americans."

Measures of inflation held relatively in check, with a drop in the longer-term outlook.

The outlook for one year from now nudged higher to 4.7%, while the five-year measure was at 3.6%, down 0.3 percentage point.

With government economic data collection and releases suspended during the shutdown, measures like the Michigan sentiment survey loom larger as alternative measures of economic progress.

As has been the case with other measures, the survey found some disparity in income levels and particularly by asset holdings. Hsu said sentiment among those with the largest stock holdings actually improved 11%.