Scepticism and hope for end to Gaza war before Trump-Netanyahu meeting

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting the United States on Monday, a visit analysts expect will focus on celebrating Israel and the US’s self-anointed victory against Iran and discussing a proposal for a ceasefire in Israel’s war on Gaza.

This is the third time this year Netanyahu will be meeting US President Donald Trump, who claims the US and Israel “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme during a 12-day war and that he would resume bombing Iran if it restarts nuclear activities.

Last week, Trump said Israel had agreed to conditions for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, which would allow all parties to work towards an end to Israel’s 21-month-long war on the besieged enclave.

On July 4, Hamas gave a “positive” response to Qatari and Egyptian mediators about the latest ceasefire proposal.

Is a ceasefire realistic?

On Friday, after Hamas’s response to the proposal, Trump said there could be a “deal next week” and promised to be “very firm” with Netanyahu to ensure a ceasefire.

Israel has since said that Hamas has requested changes to the proposal that it found “unacceptable”, but that Israeli negotiators would be going to Qatar on Sunday to discuss the proposal.

According to a leaked copy of the deal obtained by Al Jazeera, the ceasefire entails a 60-day pause in hostilities and a phased release of some of the 58 Israeli captives held in Gaza since a Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

Israel’s war on Gaza has killed at least 57,000 people, mostly women and children, in what United Nations experts, legal scholars and human rights groups describe as a genocide against Palestinians.

Many experts told Al Jazeera that they are not optimistic a temporary ceasefire will lead to a permanent end to the war.

“The way [the ceasefire talks] are being framed leaves me sceptical,” said Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine with the Middle East Council for Global Affairs.

Rahman added that he believes Trump was focused on getting the Israeli captives released, but not on ending the war and the suffering of the people of Gaza.

Trump previously promised an end to the war after pushing for a ceasefire just days before he became president in January.

However, two months later, Trump did nothing when Israel unilaterally resumed its attacks on Gaza, killing thousands more people.

Mairav Zonszein, an expert on Israel-Palestine for the International Crisis Group, said that could happen again.

“It all rests on Trump and the US to sustain real pressure [on Netanyahu], but that is highly doubtful,” she told Al Jazeera.

“I’m optimistic there could be some kind of ceasefire, but longevity and the terms are highly questionable,” Zonszein said.

“It’s also possible we could see a ceasefire that does not last because … Israel still every so often just bombs something without repercussions [in Gaza],” she added.

Yaser al-Banna, a Palestinian journalist in Gaza, said many in the Strip are divided over whether a ceasefire will end the war. While everyone prays it will, some people cannot imagine Netanyahu sticking to a deal.

Netanyahu insists that the war will not end without a “total victory” over Hamas, a concept he has not defined.

“About half the people in Gaza are very pessimistic… The other half believes this time could be different due to shared interests among Israel, the Palestinians, Arab states and the US to end this war,” he said.

Glory and pragmatism

Many analysts believe that Trump is driven by his desire to strike grandiose deals in order to boast about his achievements in global affairs.

On Monday, he is likely to take credit for ostensibly dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme – even though that may not be true – and express his desire to retrieve the rest of the Israeli captives in Gaza.

He also wants to get the “Gaza issue” out of the way to pursue more normalisation deals between Israel and neighbouring Arab states, said Khaled Elgindy, an expert on Israel-Palestine and a professor of Arab Studies at Georgetown University in Washington, DC.

“Trump wants to be able to say that he got back the Israeli hostages… and got a Palestinian state… Then he can call himself master of the universe, but getting those things is much harder than he thinks,” Elgindy told Al Jazeera.

It’s unclear whether Netanyahu’s political calculations align with Trump’s ambitions.

Israel’s next parliamentary elections have to take place before October 2026, and Netanyahu could go to the polls sooner, riding on a likely wave of popularity if he succeeds in returning the remaining captives.

Like Trump, he would also tout what he terms a stunning victory against Iran to the Israeli public.

Those considerations are important because it is likely that Netanyahu’s frail far-right coalition, held together by pressure to prolong the war on Gaza, would collapse if a permanent ceasefire is reached, said Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israel-Palestine with the European Council on Foreign Relations.

“At the end of [the possible] 60-day ceasefire, [Netanyahu] could go to elections by committing to a full end to the war and collapse his coalition; or he could go back to war to keep his [far-right] coalition together should he judge the time not right for elections,” he told Al Jazeera.

A possible, nearly unfathomable, outcome

Staying in office is particularly important for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, who faces several domestic legal charges of fraud and bribery.

During his much-anticipated meeting with Trump, experts expect them to discuss Netanyahu’s trial, which many believe plays a large role in dictating his political calculations.

Netanyahu’s position as prime minister has enabled him to undermine the Israeli judicial system by appointing loyalists to high courts and delaying court hearings – an influence he would lose if his coalition unravels.

Trump is acutely aware of Netanyahu’s dilemma.

On June 25, he called on Israel to drop the charges against Netanyahu, referring to the trial as a “witch hunt”.Trump’s comments suggest that he is trying to pressure Netanyahu’s opponents to issue a pardon in exchange for ending the war on Gaza, said Georgetown’s Elgindy.

Elgindy referenced Trump’s recent social media post where he alluded to suspending military aid to Israel unless charges against Netanyahu were dropped.

“The United States of America spends Billions of Dollars a year, far more than any other Nation, protecting and supporting Israel. We are not going to stand for this,” Trump wrote on June 28.

That would be a major – almost unfathomable – decision to emerge out of the meeting between Trump and Netanyahu, said Elgindy.

“I don’t see him following through, but this is a typical [threat] that Trump would make,” he told Al Jazeera. “His [modus operandi] is to blackmail and coerce. That is his version of diplomacy.”

Elgindy added that it was distressing that Trump would threaten to cut military aid to Israel to protect Netanyahu and not beleaguered, starving Palestinians in Gaza.

The decision to pardon Netanyahu lies with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, but such a move would be unprecedented, and the president has not indicated that he plans to do so.

Analysts believe Herzog may be willing to pardon Netanyahu if he agrees to exit political life, but not simply to secure a ceasefire.

Zonszein, from Crisis Group, adds that there are lawyers and justices in Israel who have warned “for years” that it is in the public’s interest to reach a plea bargain with Netanyahu due to the power he holds over the country.

Their only condition is for Netanyahu to agree to leave politics.

“I don’t think that is something Netanyahu is considering. If he was willing to leave political life, then he could have already negotiated a plea bargain,” she told Al Jazeera.