Canada’s shooting at a moving target on defence spending, say military watchers

Canada’s plan to add more than $9 billion to defence spending this year was praised by military watchers Monday, but they cautioned that the country is shooting at a moving target.

Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the country would meet its commitment in this fiscal year of hitting the two per cent of gross domestic product mark that was agreed upon by NATO countries more than a decade back.

“It’s very encouraging that the prime minister has come out this early in his mandate and made such a strong commitment to defence,” said Vincent Rigby, a former top intelligence adviser to former prime minister Justin Trudeau, who spent 14 years with Canada’s Department of National Defence.

“You’ve gone from the former prime minister talking about the two per cent as a crass mathematical calculation to the current prime minister saying, no, this is actually a serious commitment. We committed to it 10 years ago and even before that. And we have to do it because we owe it to our allies. But we also owe it to the Canadian people. He made it quite clear this is about protecting Canada, protecting our national interests and protecting our values.”

New spending could do a lot to improve crumbling military infrastructure, said Michel Maisonneuve, a retired Canadian Army lieutenant-general who has served as assistant deputy chief of defence staff, and chief of staff of NATO’s Allied Command.

“The housing on bases is horrible,” Maisonneuve said.

He’s keen on Carney’s plan to participate in the $234-billion ReArm Europe program.

“This will bolster our ability to produce stuff for ourselves” while also helping the Europeans to do the same, Maisonneuve said.

“All the tree huggers are going to hate that, but that’s where we are today in the world.”

Carney’s cash injection includes $2.6 billion to recruit and retain military personnel. The military is short about 13,000 people. It aims to boost the regular force to 71,500 and the reserves to 30,000 by the end of this decade.

“There is no way we can protect Canada and Canadians with the strength that we have now,” Maisonneuve said.

Carney promised investment in new submarines, aircraft, ships, vehicles and artillery. He also talked about adding money to the defence budget for new radar, drones, and sensors to monitor the seafloor and the Arctic.

“All in all, great promises; we’ll just have to see what actually comes through,” Maisonneuve said.

“You can have as many drones as you want, if you want to hold terrain, if you want to protect yourself, you’re going to need boots on the ground.”

Carney promised pay raises for those in uniform, but a technical briefing after his speech was short on details about who might get them.

“Corporal Bloggins needs a lot more than General Smith does,” said defence analyst David Perry, who heads the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

“The senior ranks are pretty well compensated. The military has got an affordability cost-of-living issue in the lower ranks.”

For people who have to move regularly, like many in uniform, “the total compensation package hasn’t kept pace with changing cost pressures,” Perry said.

“The military is having a difficult time both getting people in and keeping them there once they do join. So, I think depending on how the pay measures are actually structured, it could have quite a significant impact.”

Canada spent about 1.45 per cent of its GDP on defence last year. If Canada’s defence spending does hit two per of GDP by March of 2026, “by then the target probably will have moved,” Rigby said.

“So, we’ve hit two per cent just as the target’s likely to go to 3.5 per cent or even right up to five per cent if you throw in extra security capabilities … beyond pure defence.”

That will leave Canada “playing serious catch up,” he said.

NATO leaders are meeting later this month to discuss boosting military spending.

“Two per cent is not going to cut it in terms of where the rest of the alliance is,” Perry said. “Pretty clearly there is a discussion about getting to a number much higher than that at the upcoming NATO summit. But given that we have been falling short of this now … 11-year-old target, I do think it’s a good first step to help regain some Canadian credibility by putting the money in the window to actually get to the two per cent mark this fiscal year.”

The other question is whether Canada be able to spend all of the promised money by next March, Rigby said. “We all know that one of the problems over the last number of years is National Defence can’t spend the money quickly enough.”

The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) returns between hundreds of millions and over a billion dollars annually to central treasury, Perry told National Post earlier this year.

Carney is creating a defence procurement agency to help in that respect, Rigby said. “It’s not easy setting up new agencies. There are big machinery issues. It costs money. You’ve got to find the people.”

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.