Assessing Putin and the ‘Axis of Authoritarians’ – and How to Counter Them

CIPHER BRIEF REPORTING – On Friday, as Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed more than a dozen world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping, for a Victory Day parade in Moscow and a collective stand against the West, a global gathering in Kyiv heard a very different message: a high-level assessment and critique of Putin — from leaders who have observed him from different vantage points. At the Kyiv Security Forum, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and former CIA Director and top American commander General David Petraeus spoke about Putin’s past, his current ambitions, his relationship with the “axis of authoritarians,” and how best to counter all these elements, in this fourth year of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

Gen. Petraeus, a Cipher Brief expert, said that while Putin has engaged in the U.S.-led peace negotiations, his aim remains a reconstitution of the Soviet sphere of influence. “He has not changed his overall objectives,” Gen. Petraeus said. “He might be satisfied for a period of time with getting all four of the provinces [in Ukraine] plus Crimea, but that’s not the desired end state.” He added that Putin’s broader ambitions are “hugely important if you’re thinking about a ceasefire and how enduring that ceasefire would be.”