Andrew Richter: Iran’s nuclear ambitions could soon lead it straight into war

Concern over Iran’s nuclear program goes back almost to the turn of the century. In many ways, it’s the issue that never goes away and never gets resolved.

But with Tehran inching ever closer to actually developing nuclear weapons, and with an extremely unpredictable occupant of the White House, could that finally change?

Trying to read the tea leaves on this issue is notoriously difficult, but the signs point to a resolution this year. This could involve either Israel, the United States or both striking Iranian nuclear targets; alternatively, Tehran could take the final decision to build the bomb.

There are three factors that lead me to this conclusion.

First were the Israeli air strikes against Iran in October last year, in retaliation for earlier Iranian ballistic missile strikes. These sent a clear and unambiguous message: we can strike you at will, and there is little that you can do about it. The strikes were so successful that it’s entirely possible that they convinced the mullahs that a nuclear weapon is about the only option left to deter Israel. Iran’s air defences have been severely crippled, and it takes years to build this capability back up.

Second is the changed regional dynamic. Over the past year, the strategic environment in the Middle East has been transformed to Iran’s great detriment, as it has seen three major allies weakened.

First came the war in Gaza, which has decimated both Hamas and the territory itself since it began in 2023. Hamas is funded by Iran and has served as its surrogate on Israel’s border for decades. The most recent ceasefire collapsed last month, and the fighting continues. The end surely cannot be far away, and it will leave Iran greatly weakened. A future without Hamas looks increasingly likely.

Next came the extraordinary Israeli strikes in the fall of 2024 against Hezbollah, Iran’s ally in Lebanon, which have similarly decimated the terror group’s force. Hezbollah was once the primary power broker in Lebanon, but is now one of many competing for power and influence. And Jerusalem demonstrated once again that its intelligence capabilities remain unmatched.

Then, there were the devastating Israeli strikes against the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, which began last fall and have continued into the new year; these did considerable damage to both civilian and military infrastructure. The result is a trio of Iranian allies that have been dramatically weakened.

And third is the unpredictability of U.S. President Donald Trump, who revels in making threats and keeping other countries’ leaders off balance.

Indeed, at the end of March, Trump issued his most pointed threat yet at Tehran, telling Reuters, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing. It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.” This came after the president sent a letter offering to hold talks, with the United Arab Emirates acting as an intermediary, regarding the future of Iran’s program. The offer was initially rebuffed.

Since then, however, it appears the Iranians have had a change of heart, as talks were held with the U.S. in Oman last weekend, and are expected to continue this week.

It’s virtually impossible to say where this leaves us. The on-again, off-again nuclear negotiations offer few clues. While the chances of a deal in the near future remain remote, it is not inconceivable that it could happen. Few would have thought the original 2015 nuclear deal, which saw Iran agree to curb its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, and which deteriorated after the U.S. pulled out in 2018, was possible in the weeks and months leading up to it. With so much uncertainty surrounding the talks, it is impossible to say with any confidence where they might be headed.

That said, there remains the very real possibility of a solo Israeli military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities, something that the Israelis have been practicing for years. With a strong friend in Trump, Israel may feel like it now has more freedom to do what it wants. And, as noted, Jerusalem has little to worry about in terms of Iranian air defences (although the same cannot be said about possible Iranian retaliation against Israel itself).

There is the further possibility that, feeling hemmed in with the loss of its regional allies and pressured by an unpredictable U.S. president, Tehran may finally make the decision that it has been dancing around for more than 20 years and attempt to build the bomb.

Nuclear watchdog agencies have said that, should Iran make this decision, it could likely construct up to five nuclear weapons in a matter of months, a development that would signal the end of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. In response, a series of countries — including Saudi Arabia, Japan and South Korea — may quickly decide to become nuclear weapons states themselves.

The questions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program have swirled for more than 20 years. The restarted U.S.-Iran talks may go a long way in determining the eventual outcome. Which way they will go is still unknowable, although I have always believed that Iran will not give up the core elements of its program, and thus an Israeli strike is likely. But after 20 years, the question looks like it will finally be resolved, one way or the other.

Andrew Richter is an associate professor of political science at the University of Windsor.