'Not a permanent solution': Why immigration may not rejuvenate Spain

Many in Spain have pointed to the growing migrant population as a solution to the country's ageing population. But a new study by an influential think tank has cast doubt over this widely held belief.

Migration is not a long-term solution to Spain's ageing population, a new report has claimed. This contradicts widely held beliefs that Spain's population growth will be propped up by foreigners in the coming decades and comes as Spain's leftist government amnesties upwards of 800,000 undocumented migrants. This is according to conclusions from the study The Limits of Immigration for Demographic Adjustment in Spain, published on Tuesday by the Funcas think tank.

“Immigration has made it possible to sustain population growth and mitigate the effects of ageing, but it has done so through a mechanism that requires continuous and growing flows, loses effectiveness over time and does not correct the underlying trends of demographic imbalance,” explains María Miyar, Director of Social Studies at Funcas. According to the report, more economic realism is needed to offset the idea that immigration is a "godsend" for population rejuvenation in Spain. In fact, some in Spain argue that the migration model merely delays the consequences of the ageing population and falling birth rate in Spanish society.

"Spain has implicitly relied on immigration to correct its demographic imbalance, characterised by falling fertility rates and the ageing of the population. This analysis argues that this contribution is significant, but limited, since, although immigration may temporarily alleviate some effects of demographic change, it does not resolve its underlying causes," the study reports.

"The focus on its immediate benefits has tended to overshadow a more rigorous discussion of its long-term effects. Immigration should be understood as a mitigating factor, not as a permanent solution to Spain’s demographic challenge," it adds.

Spain's demographic model based on immigration has worked "reasonably well in the short term", the study states, but is now showing signs of exhaustion and the time frame is becoming "ever narrower" as immigrants follow low birth rate trends that prevail in the native Spanish population.

In fact, the study indicates that births to immigrant mothers in Spain have fallen by 10 percent between 2009 and 2024 despite the increase in women of childbearing age overall.

Migrant birth rates ultimately end up resembling those of native Spaniards over time. Whereas in 2002 the average was almost 2 children per migrant woman and 1.2 per native mother, by 2024 the figures were almost equal, with a similar birth rate per woman among women of foreign origin (1.3) and women born in Spain (1.17).

Furthermore, the data shows that immigrants tend not to settle in areas impacted by ageing and depopulation, and, therefore, those that need them most.

Regions such as Asturias, Galicia and Castile and León receive marginal numbers of immigrants whilst others that actually have a more favourable demographic structure, such as Catalonia, the Balearic Islands and La Rioja, receive a greater number.

"Immigration and its second generation have a greater rejuvenating effect on regions that are already growing, whilst leaving those where the ageing population is most severe without any improvement. This is a mismatch that stems from the economic logic of migration,’ Funcas concludes.

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