A Congress story and scenarios

October 24th isn't just a court date; it could be the day a party confronts its memory, its future, and its conscience. The "absolute nullity" case, within the cold walls of the law, transforms into a scene where the judiciary clashes not with politics, but with calculation and fantasy.

The CHP's 38th Ordinary Congress began like a symphony: hope, change, and struggle. The curtain had barely fallen, and the impact of that change had already manifested itself in the March 31st local elections, when the ruling power stepped in. The congress's legitimacy was questioned through the use of certain "apparatus figures" (like Lütfü Savaş) who had been excluded from the party and failed in their assigned duties. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's indirect support for the "Shady" remark by saying, "Silence comes from confession, why are they silent?" questioned the delegates' will and brought the sanctity of the ballot box into question. Now, perhaps, the finale of this symphony will be written in the "absolute nullity" trial to be held on October 24th.

Let me be clear: I expect a "postponement" in this case. I don't think a decision will be made on a case that will inflict significant financial losses and will even be left "off-topic" with the 39th Ordinary Congress, which will take place in a month. However, the government will exploit this environment where the CHP is being discussed, where it's a hot topic, where issues like corruption and bribery are being raised, and where it can create "divisions and divisions" with dissenting voices within the CHP. And they will do so while rubbing their hands together. They will hold the "Sword of Damocles" over the CHP.

So what happens tomorrow?

The Pulse of Law or the Rhythm of Politics?

Will the court be the scales of justice or the metronome of politics?

Four possible decisions, four separate scenarios:

- Cancellation of the Congress (Absolute Nullity): This decision means the end of Özgür Özel's administration but a new beginning. Kılıçdaroğlu and his team are ready. He says he will not hand over the party leadership to a trustee in such a situation.

-The appointment of a trustee: If the party were to fall under the tutelage of the judiciary, it would be a major blow to democracy. The country's already fragile economy would fall into an irreparable crisis, and the government would be crushed by the judiciary's decision. The independence of the judiciary is constantly being debated.

-Dismissal of Case: If the law doesn't fall prey to politics, the CHP will continue on its path, implementing some renewals in party leadership at the 39th Ordinary Congress. And with renewed, new blood.

- Postponement: Especially with budget discussions ongoing in the Turkish Grand National Assembly, and the operation targeting the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality or the March 19th coup attempt having cost the economy $64 billion, postponement is the best option. A definitive decision won't be reached, but the debate won't end either. Time will be gained, but uncertainty will persist. Until the ordinary congress, scheduled for the end of November.

The Silence of the Government: The Calm Before the Storm?

While the AKP appears to be observing this process from the outside, it expects the internal rift to widen. Songs of "divided opposition, strong government" are constantly being sung. Kılıçdaroğlu's potential return (which he anticipates will happen) will create serious debate within the party, right up until the regular congress. Is it worth it for 20 days or a month? Kılıçdaroğlu will not be a "chairman candidate" at the congress. Perhaps he will facilitate the formation of a list he supports. But the ruling party will be pleased to observe this internal debate within the CHP and will once again focus the attention on the CHP.

CHP's Inner Voice: Defense or Rebirth?

As the CHP prepares its legal defense, it is also reassessing its political reflexes. Party officials say, "The court cannot issue a nullity ruling." Because the Supreme Election Council (YSK) has supported this process from the beginning, it is striving to fully complete the process leading up to the congress. However, this case will be won not only through legal means, but also through conscience. Can the party transform this process into a rebirth?

October 24, Mirror of a Party

The case to be heard on October 24th could be a critical turning point in clarifying the legal and political debate surrounding the CHP's congress process. The court's decision could directly impact not only the legitimacy of the current administration but also the party's internal balance and the opposition's overall strategy. Each possibility—cancellation, trusteeship, rejection, or postponement—could have different political consequences. This process will test the CHP's crisis management capabilities and its message of unity to the public.

Whatever the outcome, it is likely to have lasting effects on internal party democracy and institutional trust.