Medium-Term Rosy Targets

As it does every year, the government has announced the Medium-Term Program (MTP), once again packed with rosy targets. Covering the 2026-2028 period, the MTP thwarted all the rosy targets presented to the public in the previous MTP. According to the MTP's rosy targets, inflation and unemployment will fall over the next three years, and per capita income will reach $20,987. However, the facts in the MTP indicate that citizens will pay more taxes, public resources will be engulfed by interest, and the last remaining public assets will be rapidly sold off.

WILL BE IMPOSED ON CITIZENS

According to Medium Term Program (MTP) data, inflation will fall to 28.5 percent this year and 16 percent next year. However, the previous MTP announced that inflation would fall to 17.5 percent in 2025 and 9.7 percent in 2026. The new MTP has revealed that the MTP targets, which are less than a year old, are practically garbage. The year-end inflation forecast in the new MTP seems unlikely to be met. According to the new MTP, with national income at 62.2 trillion dollars ($1.569 billion) at the end of this year, the average dollar exchange rate will be 39.62 TL this year and 46.59 TL next year.

Per capita income will be $17,748 this year and will rise to $20,987 in 2028. According to the Medium Term Program (OVP), which estimates GDP growth of 3.3 percent this year and 3.8 percent next year, unemployment will fall to 8.5 percent this year and 8.4 percent next year. The government will once again rely on the public to finance public spending. According to the Medium Term Program, it will collect 24.5 trillion lira in taxes from citizens in just two years, 10.7 trillion lira this year and 13.8 trillion lira next year. 2 trillion lira will be transferred from public resources to interest this year and 2.7 trillion lira next year.

174 billion to Diyanet, 21 billion to Saray

The Medium Term Program (MTP) has also revealed next year's budget allocations. According to the MTP, the Presidential budget will increase by approximately 26 percent in 2026, from 16.9 billion lira to 21.3 billion lira. The Presidency's personnel expenses will increase by an extraordinary 61.7 percent, from 2.8 billion lira to 4.5 billion lira. The Presidency of Religious Affairs, which has used over 130 billion lira this year, will see its budget increased by 34 percent in 2026, reaching 174.4 billion lira. 149 billion lira of this amount will go to imams' salaries.

Election preparations in 2026

The government's election preparations were also reflected in the Medium Term Program (MTP). According to the MTP, the ratio of public consumption to national income, which stood at 10.4 percent last year and this year, will suddenly rise to 11.1 percent in 2026. Public consumption will rise to 11.2 percent in 2027 and 11.3 percent in 2028. This data suggests that public resources will begin to be spent on elections starting next year. The government, which has prioritized borrowing, has also set a massive privatization target of 185 billion lira next year, signaling its election preparations.

WHAT DID THEY SAY?

He said stability but...

On a day when markets plummeted following the appointment of a trustee to the CHP's Istanbul Provincial Headquarters, Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz commented on the Medium Term Program (MTP) with the words, "Turkey will become much stronger with the political stability, environment of trust, and economic program it provides." Yılmaz stated that they intervene in the foreign exchange market "when speculation increases."

It is not an anchor for anyone

Economist Güldem Atabay described the Medium Term Program (MTP), saying, "With the country being lost and us unable to see beyond our means, this three-year program will serve as an anchor for no one." Atabay added, "Minister Mehmet Şimşek has clearly grown tired of the situation and thrown in the towel. The Medium Term Program (MTP) is riddled with internal inconsistencies."

No earthquake money was spent

The Medium Term Program (MTP) text stated, "Earthquake expenditures fell short of budget projections" for 2024. Economist İnan Mutlu explained, "Resources specifically allocated to earthquake zones have not been spent. The answer to why people in earthquake zones are suffering in mud and poverty lies in the Medium Term Program."