Global markets mixed as tariff concerns rise again

While uncertainties continue regarding the possible outcomes of the steps taken by US President Donald Trump within the scope of his "America First" policy, Trump's announcement that he does not intend to extend the duration of the tariffs that he postponed until July 9 has eroded risk appetite in the markets.
Analysts pointed out that risk priorities frequently change due to developments in the US economy and mixed signals from macroeconomic data, parallel to fears that geopolitical tensions may rise again and trade wars may intensify again through tariffs, and that this situation makes it difficult for investors to make decisions and has an impact on pricing.
Meanwhile, the US Senate has passed a bill that aims to implement the tax cuts promised by President Donald Trump during his election campaign. The bill includes increasing state and local tax cuts, eliminating taxes on tips and overtime income, and extending tax cuts that went into effect in 2017, as well as making spending cuts. The bill must also be approved by the House of Representatives before it can be submitted for Trump’s signature.
Analysts pointed out that concerns about the US fiscal outlook were closely monitored by investors following the approval of the tax bill, and that investments in US assets could be re-evaluated if the bill is passed in the House of Representatives.
"I will not remove the possibility of a rate cut from the table"In addition to these developments, speaking at the ECB Central Banking Forum organized by the European Central Bank (ECB) yesterday, US Federal Reserve (Fed) President Jerome Powell said that they want to obtain more data and see the effects of the tariffs before starting to lower interest rates again.
Powell said the US economy is in a very good position and noted that inflation is behaving as expected when tariffs are ignored. Powell noted that the impact of tariffs has not yet been seen very much and said that they expect higher inflation data throughout the summer.
Asked whether the Fed would have lowered interest rates further without the tariffs, Powell said, "I think that's true," noting that when they saw the magnitude of the tariffs and inflation expectations rose as a result of the tariffs, they took a stand.
Powell said the vast majority of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members think it would be appropriate to start cutting interest rates again later in the year and that they will be monitoring data on inflation and the labor market. Powell said he would not take the possibility of a rate cut off the table at any meeting and that it would depend on how the data develops.
While it is expected in money market pricing that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September with an 88 percent probability, predictions that the Bank may decide to cut interest rates a total of 3 times throughout the year continued to strengthen.
Following these statements, all eyes turned to the labor market, which has significant weight in the Fed's monetary policy decisions. The ADP private sector employment data to be released today and the nonfarm payrolls data to be released tomorrow will be in the focus of investors.
Analysts noted that clues regarding the steps the Fed will take in the upcoming period will be sought in this data, and underlined that the signals received from the data could cause volatility in asset prices.
On the macroeconomic data side, the number of JOLTS job openings in the US reached 7.769 million in May, the highest level since November 2024.
Although the US manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose to 49 in June, it pointed out that the contraction in the sector continued.
The manufacturing sector PMI data for June announced by S&P Global also increased to 52.9 with an upward revision. The index rose to its highest level since May 2022.
Construction spending in the US fell 0.3% in May, more than market expectations.
Bond market and gold ounce "interest rate cut" expectations came to the foreThe activity in bond markets is drawing attention as expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates grow stronger. The US 10-year bond yield fell to 4.19 percent yesterday, its lowest level since May 1, and settled at 4.25 percent on the new day.
The ounce price of gold, whose alternative cost has decreased with the weakening dollar and falling bond interest rates, rose by 1.1 percent yesterday to $3,339, and is currently at $3,340, just above its previous close.
While the barrel price of Brent oil is trading at $66.9, down 0.2 percent, the dollar index is currently trading sideways at 96.7.
On the corporate side, Tesla shares fell more than 5 percent after Trump said that subsidies received by Musk's companies should be investigated.
On the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, the S&P 500 index fell by 0.11 percent, the Nasdaq index fell by 0.82 percent, while the Dow Jones index rose by 0.91 percent. Index futures contracts in the US started the new day on a positive note.
Central Banking Forum is being followed in EuropeWhile a sell-off was prominent in European stock markets yesterday, excluding the UK, investors are focused on the speech to be given by ECB President Christine Lagarde today.
Speaking at the opening of the ECB Central Banking Forum yesterday, Lagarde said the ECB was well positioned to face future challenges following its latest monetary policy strategy review.
Regarding the Eurozone inflation rate announced as 2 percent for June, Lagarde said, "I cannot say that the mission was successfully completed on inflation, but the target was reached."
Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said that the policy rate is on a downward trend and that monetary policy is still restrictive and will remain so for some time.
On the other hand, the German Federal Employment Agency (BA) announced the unemployment figures for June. Accordingly, the seasonally adjusted number of unemployed people in the country increased by 11 thousand people in June compared to May, reaching 2 million 970 thousand. The expectation was that the number of unemployed people would increase by 15 thousand in June.
International financial research organization S&P Global announced the UK's June manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data. According to the data, the country's manufacturing industry PMI was 47.7 in June. Although this level was the highest value in the last 5 months, it continued to remain below the growth zone of 50 points.
Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in England rose by 0.28 percent, while the DAX 40 in Germany fell by 0.99 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy fell by 0.58 percent and the CAC 40 index in France fell by 0.04 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day positively.
Trump Threatens Tariffs Against JapanWhile a mixed trend was evident in Asian markets, US President Trump's statements regarding the trade agreement with Japan put pressure on regional stock markets.
Trump, who said he was skeptical that they could make a trade agreement with Japan, said that he would write a letter to Japan and said in the letter, "We thank you very much and we know that you cannot do what we need, so you pay 30 percent, 35 percent or whatever figure we determine."
Japan's chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said both the Japanese and US delegations were holding cordial talks for a possible deal but fundamental differences were still unresolved.
With these developments, Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 0.2 percent, South Korea's Kospi index fell 0.9 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.7 percent. China's Shanghai composite index remained flat.
Export data will be monitored domesticallyFollowing a buying-heavy trend yesterday, the BIST 100 index gained 1.33 percent of its value and closed the day at 10,080.35 points. The August futures contract based on the BIST 30 index on the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) was traded at 11,920.00 points in yesterday evening's session, 0.2 percent below the normal session close.
USD/TL, which closed at 39.8370 with a 0.1 percent increase yesterday, is being traded horizontally at 39.8410 at the opening of the interbank market today.
Analysts stated that export figures in the country, ADP private sector employment in the USA, ECB President Lagarde's statements and the unemployment rate in the Eurozone will be prominent today, and noted that technically, the 10,100 and 10,200 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance, while 10,000 and 9,900 points are support.
ekonomim