Global markets eyes on data from the US

While uncertainties about the results of the US administration's protectionist trade policy continue to exist, the signals to be received from employment data, which US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials frequently emphasize, are expected to provide more information about the country's economy.

According to data released in the country yesterday, private sector employment in the USA decreased by 33 thousand people in June, contrary to expectations of an increase, and recorded the first decrease since March 2023.

Analysts stated that the decrease has raised concerns about the health of the labor market in the country and that the signals to be received from the employment report data, especially the non-farm employment data to be announced today, could reduce uncertainties regarding the interest rate cut process in the country.

Analysts noted that it is possible that the Fed will cut interest rates this month if the employment market cools down more than expected, and reminded that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell had said in past speeches that they could take early action if the employment market weakened.

In money market pricing, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this month increased to 26 percent after the private sector employment data, but the possibility of a rate cut in September continued to dominate.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump's criticisms of Powell continue. Targeting Powell again yesterday, Trump reiterated his call for her resignation.

Trump Announces Trade Deal with Vietnam

Trump announced yesterday on his Truth Social account that there will be a 20 percent customs duty on goods sent from Vietnam to the United States, and that this rate will be 40 percent if products originating from other countries are transferred.

Noting that Vietnam would give the US full access to trade in return, Trump said Vietnam would open its markets to the US and that US companies would be able to trade with zero customs duties.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq index break new records

On the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P 500 index gained 0.47 percent and the Nasdaq index gained 0.94 percent yesterday due to optimism about trade agreements and expectations that weak employment data could accelerate the interest rate cut process, while the Dow Jones index remained flat. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes broke records at the close. Index futures contracts in the US started the new day with a positive trend.

On the corporate side, the increase in shares of companies that produce heavily in Vietnam following the announcement of a trade agreement was notable. Nike's shares gained over 4 percent, Columbia's 1.5 percent and Deckers Outdoor's approximately 1 percent.

The New York Stock Exchange, which will be closed tomorrow for Independence Day in the United States, will be open for half a day of trading today.

The activity in bond markets is drawing attention as expectations that the Fed may cut interest rates grow stronger. The US 10-year bond yield rose 4 basis points yesterday to close at 4.29 percent, and settled at 4.27 percent on the new trading day.

Following a 3-day rising streak, the ounce price of gold is currently trading at $3,350, 0.2 percent below its previous close, while the dollar index started the new trading day with a 0.1 percent increase at 96.8.

While a barrel of Brent crude oil fell by 0.8 percent to $68.3, the expectation that a decision on increasing production will be made in August at the meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producer countries to be held this weekend is effective in the selling trend.

European stock markets remained positive except for the UK

While a buying-heavy trend was prominent in European stock markets yesterday, excluding the UK, today the services sector and composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will be followed in the region.

While the news flow regarding the welfare reform bill in the UK is being closely followed, following the opposition's criticism of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer supported Reeves.

On the other hand, activity data regarding the service sector to be announced in Europe today is in the focus of investors.

In countries in the region where the decline in manufacturing industry activity has been continuing for some time, the expansion in the service sector plays an important role in balancing growth expectations.

Yesterday, the DAX 40 index in Germany rose by 0.49 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy rose by 0.57 percent and the CAC 40 index in France rose by 0.99 percent, while the FTSE 100 index in England fell by 0.12 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day positively.

Asian stock markets mixed

Asian markets are on a mixed course, with the trade agreement between the US and Vietnam fuelling negotiation optimism in the region, increasing risk appetite.

While the ongoing negotiations between Japan and the US have not yet yielded results, the risk perception in the country remains high, the possibility of Japan reaching a trade agreement with the US before July 9, the last day of tariff postponements, is gradually decreasing.

According to data released in the region today, the service sector PMI for June in Japan increased compared to the previous month with 51.7, indicating expansion in the sector. On the Chinese side, the Caixin service sector PMI remained strong with 50.6, falling short of expectations.

With these developments, while the Nikkei 225 index in Japan lost 0.1 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost 0.9 percent near the close, the Kospi index in South Korea rose 1.1 percent and the Shanghai Composite index in China rose 0.1 percent.

All eyes on domestic inflation data

Following a buying-heavy trend yesterday, the BIST 100 index gained 1.08 percent of its value and closed the day at 10,189.02 points. The August futures contract based on the BIST 30 index in the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) was traded at 12,174.00 points in yesterday evening's session, 0.7 percent above the normal session close.

Investors are focused on the inflation data for June, which will be announced today. Economists participating in the AA Finance Inflation Expectations Survey predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will increase by 1.53 percent in June. According to the average of June inflation expectations (1.53 percent), economists predict that annual inflation, which was 35.41 percent the previous month, will decrease to 35.26 percent, and their inflation expectation for the end of 2025 is 30.41 percent as of June.

USD/TL, which closed at 39.7750 with a 0.2 percent decrease yesterday, is being traded at 39.9100 with a 0.4 percent increase at the opening of the interbank market today.

On the other hand, Türkiye's first "Climate Law Proposal" was accepted by the TBMM General Assembly yesterday and became law. The Law, which aims to combat climate change in line with the green growth vision and net zero emission target, covers the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and climate change adaptation activities, planning and implementation tools, revenues, permits and inspections, and the procedures and principles of the legal and institutional framework related to these.

Analysts stated that today, an intensive data agenda will be followed, including inflation in the country and non- farm employment data in the US abroad, and noted that from a technical perspective, the 10,200 and 10,300 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance, while 10,100 and 10,000 points are support.