All eyes on the ECB in global markets!

While uncertainty about the long-term and intermediate-term effects of the tariff measures taken by the US administration as part of its protectionist trade policy continues to be the focus of global economic actors, the fact that the US's major trading partners, such as the European Union (EU) and Japan, have not yet reached an agreement with the US is eroding risk appetite.

On the other hand, the verbal guidance to be given by the governors of major central banks at the ECB Central Banking Forum, which started yesterday in Sintra, Portugal and continues today, became the focus of investors.

Many high-level central bank officials will give speeches at the forum, including US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda and South Korean Central Bank Governor Chang Yong Rhee.

On the other hand, investors are also focusing on the JOLTS job openings data for May in the US.

Analysts said that signals from employment data to be followed this week could be effective in the Fed's monetary policy decision, and that if a cooling-down occurs in the labor market above expectations, expectations for the first interest rate cut could be brought forward to July.

Trade talks agenda intensifies

Canada has backed down on the digital services tax after US President Donald Trump announced last week that trade talks with Canada had ended.

Canada's government has decided to repeal a digital services tax on technology companies in a bid to make progress in talks with the United States on a new economic and security partnership.

Other developments in trade talks are also being monitored, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warning there will be a rush to strike a deal as pressure mounts heading into the final week of a 90-day tariff moratorium.

"There are countries that are negotiating in good faith, but countries should be aware that if we cannot reach an agreement because of their stubbornness, we could go back to the April 2 levels. I hope that doesn't have to happen," Bessent said, noting that tariffs for some countries could rise to the levels announced on April 2.

Trump threatens to impose tariffs on Japan

Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Japan on social media because it did not buy rice from them despite the rice shortage it was experiencing.

Analysts noted that the trade negotiations between the US and Japan have not yet yielded results, and said that Trump's increasingly critical stance towards Japan could be effective in accelerating the process.

In addition to these developments, Trump continues to increase the dose of his criticism of Powell. Yesterday, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt reported that Trump said in a note to Powell, "He is costing the country a fortune and he needs to lower interest rates."

S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes break new records

With these developments, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.52 percent, the Dow Jones index by 0.63 percent and the Nasdaq index by 0.47 percent on the New York Stock Exchange. The Nasdaq index and the S&P 500 index broke records at the close. Index futures contracts in the US started the new day with a negative trend.

While a bullish trend stood out in bond markets yesterday, the US 10-year bond interest rate fell by 4 basis points to 4.24 percent yesterday. The US 10-year bond interest, which continued to fall on the new trading day, fell to 4.21 percent.

While the ounce price of gold started the new day with a 0.6 percent increase at $3,323, the barrel price of Brent oil is currently trading at $66.6 with a 0.2 percent increase in value. The dollar index is currently at 96.8, just above its previous close.

European stock markets remained negative except for Italy

While a sell-off trend was prominent in European stock markets yesterday, except for Italy, the tariff negotiations between the US and the EU that have not been concluded are increasing the risk perception.

While the news flow regarding the tariff agenda in the region is being closely followed, the ECB announced that it has made strategic arrangements against continuous upward or downward fluctuations in inflation.

While maintaining its inflation target of 2 percent, the bank pledged to respond as strongly when inflation is very high as when it is very low.

On the other hand, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing industry to be announced in the region today and the inflation data for June to be announced in the Eurozone are expected to provide more information about the European economy.

Yesterday, while the DAX 40 in Germany fell 0.51 percent, the FTSE 100 index in England fell 0.43 percent and the CAC 40 index in France fell 0.33 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy rose 0.13 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day positively.

Asian stock markets mixed

Asian markets are on a mixed course following Trump's trade criticism of Japan.

The fact that the trade agreement between the US and Japan has taken longer than expected and that no concrete development has yet occurred increases the perception of risk in the intense global trade bureaucracy process.

While the data flow in the region is also being monitored, according to the data released today, the manufacturing industry PMI for June in Japan was 50.1, indicating expansion in the sector. On the Chinese side, the Caixin manufacturing industry PMI for June gained momentum compared to the previous month, with 50.4.

With these developments, while the Nikkei 225 index in Japan lost 1 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost 0.9 percent near the close, the Shanghai Composite Index in China gained 0.3 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea gained 1.2 percent.

Fastest daily rise in 2 years from the stock market

Following a buying-heavy trend yesterday, the BIST 100 index gained 5.78 percent in value , making its fastest daily rise since May 11, 2023, and closed the day at 9,948.51 points.

USD /TL, which closed at 39.8120 with a 0.2 percent decrease yesterday, is being traded at 39.8800 with a 0.2 percent increase at the opening of the interbank market today.

Analysts stated that in addition to manufacturing industry PMI data worldwide, inflation in the Eurozone and the number of JOLTS open jobs in the US will be monitored, and noted that from a technical perspective, 10,000 and 10,100 points are resistance in the BIST 100 index, while 9,900 and 9,800 levels are support.