They want to crush Russia with a ceiling: the "Big Seven" will discuss new sanctions against Moscow's oil exports

The idea of ​​lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil, which has been discussed in the EU for several months, will now be included in the agenda of the upcoming G7 summit, scheduled for mid-June in Canada. This was reported by the official representative of the European Commission, Paula Pinho. The exact parameters of the new "ceiling" are not yet known, the Western press cites figures of $50 and $45 per barrel as the levels under discussion. What are the consequences of this possible decision for the Russian and global economy?

When asked whether the US administration agrees with the proposal to further lower the price ceiling for Russian oil, Pinho said: "Limiting the price of Russian oil is also being discussed within the G7. You know that there will be a G7 summit in Canada in mid-June. And this issue may well be a subject of discussion there." The EC representative added that the new sanctions ceiling for Russian oil prices should be below $60 per barrel, but it is too early to name its exact level.

Earlier, Western media reported that the EC had proposed to its G7 partners to lower the new ceiling on Russian oil prices expected in the 18th sanctions package to $50 per barrel. Later, an even tougher figure emerged: $45.

The issue of lowering the oil ceiling for Russia arose in the camp of our "enemies" for a reason. Since the beginning of 2025, world oil prices have dramatically dropped from $80 to $60 per barrel (currently, the price of the benchmark Brent grade fluctuates around $65). And the cheaper Russian export grade Urals is quietly trading below the current "ceiling", which does not create any inconvenience for Russia. Hence the idea - to suppress Russia's export income with an even stricter "ceiling" than the current one - $60 per barrel, which came into force at the turn of 2022-2023. The essence of this restriction is that Western companies are prohibited from issuing insurance policies, and ship owners - from transporting raw materials exported at prices above the "ceiling" level.

It is worth noting that Russia is seriously short of export revenues this year. Federal budget revenues from oil and gas in May 2025 fell by 35% year-on-year and by 53% compared to April, according to information from the Ministry of Finance. And according to the results of five months, oil and gas revenues were 14.4% less than for the same period last year, amounting to 4.24 trillion rubles against 4.95 trillion in January-May 2024. But the recorded decrease in tax revenues is not at all due to the effect of the price "ceiling", but to the fall in the ruble value of Russian oil due to the simultaneous decline in oil prices and the strengthening of the ruble. The May ruble price of Urals for taxes was 20% less than the Ministry of Finance's forecasts for this year. It is no coincidence that the Russian government promptly approved amendments to the 2025 budget, which provide for a reduction in projected revenues from the sale of energy resources by almost a quarter of the plan - by 2.6 trillion rubles to 8.32 trillion.

In these conditions, the question naturally arises: is a further reduction in the oil price ceiling dangerous for the Russian economy? MK turned to experts for an answer.

"We believe that the probability of introducing such a price ceiling without US support is practically zero," says Natalia Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. According to her, the new "ceiling" is no longer beneficial to the EU itself, as it threatens to worsen European relations with China and India. But even if the EU introduces the "ceiling" unilaterally, it is unlikely to be observed, since the price of Urals today is on average $52-55 per barrel, which suits consumers. At the same time, Russia, due to the change in OPEC+ quotas, can already export more oil. The dynamics of Russia's oil and gas revenues depend to the greatest extent on the dynamics of the market price, and not the "ceilings," says Milchakova.

Vladislav Antonov, a financial analyst at BitRiver, for his part, reminds us that there is no unanimity among the G7 participants regarding further lowering of the “ceiling”. The US, for example, is skeptical about the need for such measures, pointing out that the current fall in world oil prices is already negatively affecting Russian income without additional sanctions.

If the West does decide to lower the "ceiling", this will certainly put pressure on the Russian budget. According to the analyst's calculations, with the "ceiling" at $50 per barrel, Russia's export revenues could fall by $60 billion per year compared to current figures, which will increase the budget deficit, accelerate the devaluation of the ruble and increase inflationary pressure. "However, the Kremlin has tools to mitigate the consequences - by mobilizing reserves, increasing taxes or cutting non-priority spending. In the short term, this will not cause a crisis, but in the long term, it will increase systemic risks for the economy," the expert believes.

Dmitry Alexandrov, head of the analytical research department at AVI Capital, believes that the decision to lower the "ceiling", if made, will probably only affect seaborne deliveries. "Currently, actual selling prices, taking into account the price differential of the Russian export grade to Brent, are at or below the current "ceiling" of $60 per barrel. This change may not have a large direct effect, especially if a bearish picture forms on the markets again - for example, due to a combination of increased OPEC+ production and slowing demand in China," the analyst points out. In addition, our country has already had the practice of circumventing such restrictions, including by "smearing" the price difference along the supply chain, mixing grades, transshipment at sea... "The new sanctions can only be highly effective in the case of new strict restrictions on the "shadow" fleet and any other transport and insurance companies. But in this case, there is a risk of a sharp rise in world oil prices, by $5-10 per barrel compared to the current level,” the expert asserts.

Lowering the price ceiling for Russian oil to $45-50 per barrel is a discussed but not guaranteed measure, says economist Andrey Loboda, a top manager in the field of financial communications

"The G7 countries will evaluate not only the economic pressure but also potential risks for the common market when making such a decision. If the restrictions are adopted, Russia may reduce exports. This will primarily affect "unfriendly" jurisdictions. Such a step will create an additional basis for volatility in the oil market and push global prices for raw materials up," the expert explains.

In his opinion, if the decision is made at the G7 level, the market may react with a rise in Brent oil prices due to expectations of a supply reduction. "The scale of price fluctuations will depend on the reaction of the main consumers - India, China and Turkey - and on how effectively Russia will be able to maintain supply volumes outside the Western contour," the economist believes.