The Secret of the Second Indexation: In 2026, Pensions Will Be Raised Not Only on February 1, but Also on April 1

Starting next year, Russia will switch to a two-stage pension indexation: from February 1 and April 1. The first is the usual one, based on last year's inflation. But the second is new - based on the rate of salary growth. This was reported by the Minister of Labor of the Russian Federation Anton Kotyakov. Of course, for 33 million recipients of insurance pensions, a double increase is better than a one-time increase. But few people yet understand what the second indexation will be and how much it will add to the total amount of payments.

So, starting next year, the indexation of insurance pensions will take place in two stages: from February 1 and from April 1. At the first stage, pensions will be indexed according to the annual inflation rate for the previous year, that is, for 2025. Everything is clear here, everyone has long been accustomed to this scheme. The only difference is that the indexation according to the inflation rate will be shifted a month later, from February 1. However, it will retroactively include increased payments for January.

The authorities explain the change in the timing of this payment by the fact that by January 1, statistical agencies do not have time to calculate the exact amount of annual inflation. And by February 1, such data will already be at the disposal of Rosstat.

The main questions pensioners have about the second indexation - from April 1. Previously, it was said that it would be carried out at the expense of investment income of the Social Fund. Judging by the statement of Anton Kotyakov, the concept has changed - the increase will occur due to the increase in the rate of wages. The authorities have already begun to lay it down when preparing the budget for 2026.

Many analysts, including State Duma deputies, have expressed their opinions on the second stage of pension increases. In the sense that this is an additional increase to pension payments, which, of course, will become another financial support for veterans. However, the pensioners themselves are primarily interested in the size of the April payment.

Alas, both government officials and independent experts are keeping silent about this. Maybe they will keep the intrigue going, or maybe they themselves don’t know yet.

What can elderly Russians hope for if the April indexation is “tied” to the growth of wages in the country, which are showing records? However, due to the cooling of the economy this year, many analysts predict that the nominal growth of wages will be about 12%, which is about 1.5 times lower than in 2024.

- The Social Fund accumulates certain funds from which payments can be made, - explains Doctor of Economics Alexey Zubets. - And increasing pensions due to wage growth implies an increase in insurance contributions to the Social Fund. Thanks to which, apparently, indexation will be carried out in April 2026.

- However, these same deductions from employers will form the basis for indexation on February 1... What will remain on April 1?

- In this case, it doesn't matter. If the Social Fund has a reserve from the increase in wages, that is, the increase in insurance contributions, it will use them for repeated indexation. The increase in wages increases the income of the Social Fund, it has a real opportunity to conduct a two-stage indexation.

- In your opinion, by how much can pensions increase after April 1, 2026?

- Nobody knows yet. The government most likely did not calculate the payments in April 9 months before. When it becomes clear how much money came into the Social Fund from insurance contributions, then it will be clear by what amount to increase pensions in April.

- Much depends on annual inflation. The Central Bank expects this figure to be around 7-8%. And some analysts predict that it will be no less than 10%. If so, won't the February indexation eat up the April one?

- I believe that annual inflation will be around 8%, funds for the second indexation will remain, because salaries are growing at an accelerated rate.

- But they can't grow at a rapid pace forever. Could it be that the second indexation will be cancelled in April 2027?

- In the long term, we cannot rule out a longer period of cooling of the Russian economy. But wages will grow, although not at the same rate as, say, in 2023 and 2024. The minimum unemployment of 2.3% has not disappeared. The shortage of personnel still remains and employers in pursuit of "labor hands" will be forced to raise wages. I am sure that the Social Fund will have funds for a two-stage indexation of pensions.