Mandatory Sale of Foreign Currency Earnings Has Been Cancelled in Russia: How Will This Affect the Ruble

The government has reset the standards for mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters. Thus, the large-scale anti-crisis measure introduced in October 2023 is no longer in effect. Experts considered this step absolutely justified in the current macroeconomic conditions. As for the long-term consequences for the ruble, it is difficult to predict them. However, the rate has already moved from dead center and has weakened slightly against the dollar.

The corresponding decree was signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

“The decision was made in connection with the strengthening and stabilization of the national currency exchange rate, as well as the absence of problems with foreign exchange liquidity,” the government explained.

Let us recall that the requirement concerned exporters working in the fuel and energy complex, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, chemical and forestry industries, and grain farming. They were required to transfer at least 40% of foreign currency to bank accounts and sell 90% of it on the domestic market. The authorities set several goals, first of all, to increase the transparency of the foreign exchange market, reduce the possibility of currency speculation, and stabilize the ruble exchange rate, which reached 100 per dollar in the fall of 2023. Currently, the rate is at 80 rubles per dollar, and, as a result, both mandatory indicators - repatriation at 40% and sales at 90% - have now been reset to zero.

Let us recall that the Central Bank has repeatedly spoken out against extending the measure, noting that it does not see “weighty reasons” for this. And at the beginning of 2024, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP) Alexander Shokhin said that in the absence of information about the real impact of the rule on the exchange rate, “it is difficult to draw a conclusion about its effectiveness.” However, the measure was extended at the insistence of the Ministry of Finance. We asked experts whether they agree with the government’s decision and how this step could affect the ruble in the long term.

Denis Astafyev, manager of the fintech platform SharesPro:

"The dollar momentarily exceeded the 80 mark amid reports of the cancellation of the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings for exporters. The abandonment of this measure means a reduction in the volume of foreign currency entering the domestic market, which will put pressure on the ruble and could shift the rate to the 95-97 zone for the "American". Initially, the requirement was introduced to stabilize the ruble during a period of high turbulence. Now the market is able to function without strict administrative support, and keeping the rate too strong carries risks for the budget and exporters. A weak national currency increases ruble income from exports, supports the budget and increases the competitiveness of Russian goods abroad.

The decision may also be linked to the expectation of geopolitical changes. If, in the event of potential agreements between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, the ruble receives an impetus to strengthen, the refusal of the mandatory sale of proceeds will smooth out this effect and maintain a comfortable currency balance for the state."

Natalia Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global:

"The requirement for exporters was in effect since the fall of 2023 after the dollar jumped to 100 rubles. Then, in 2024, the percentage of mandatory sale of foreign currency proceeds was reduced so as not to cause major damage to exporters. At the same time, the ruble strengthened against the dollar by more than 18%, and today the rate is 79.77. Apparently, the decision to cancel the standards was made after the release of Rosstat data on GDP growth dynamics for the second quarter, which slowed to 1.1% (from 1.4% in the first quarter). Probably, the government decided to support not only exporters, but also budget revenues, since if the ruble is allowed to weaken a little, then a barrel of oil in rubles will cost more and, accordingly, the budget will receive more income from the export of "black gold."

The decision has not yet led to a collapse or panic selling of the ruble. It is gradually falling against world reserve currencies, but it seems to be a completely controllable process. In addition, at the end of each month, the tax period helps the ruble to strengthen, and, apparently, the third ten days of August 2025 will not be an exception. Until the end of August, the dollar exchange rate will be in the corridor of 79-82."

Igor Nikolaev, Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

"If the rule of mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters (with the real level of sales in recent months being about 90%) does not affect the ruble exchange rate in any way, it loses its original function and any practical meaning. It is clear that the state does not need such a purely formal measure. Accordingly, I consider the decision to reset the standards to zero to justified. Plus, when some restriction, some element of lack of freedom of economic activity is lifted, this can almost always be assessed with a plus sign.

Andrey Loboda, economist, top manager in the field of financial communications:

"The decision seems logical, but let's wait and see how the upcoming August tax period goes: it starts next week. Probably, everything will go according to the usual framework, since the sale of currency to pay taxes starts in advance. But in September, the flow is expected to be smaller, and in this case, the ruble exchange rate will weaken, all other things being equal. There is one thing: in April and May, exporters sold almost 100% of their foreign exchange earnings, that is, far beyond the standards. They need rubles inside the country, so the rate may remain approximately at the current level, near the 80 mark."