Expert Yushkov does not rule out a jump in oil prices above $150 per barrel due to events around Iran

A jump in oil prices is inevitable, the only question is how much. Discussing the immediate consequences of the US Air Force strike on three key Iranian nuclear facilities, commodity market analysts do not rule out a rise in Brent prices to $100 and even $130 per barrel in the coming days. However, the most extreme scenario, in their opinion, will be realized if Tehran closes the Strait of Hormuz (and, accordingly, stops shipping), through which about 20% of the world's oil is transported.

Since the Israeli strikes on Iran began, oil has risen by about 10%, and by the close of trading on Friday it was above $77 a barrel. Since the American bombing took place on the night of Sunday, June 22, the markets were in limbo, waiting for the opening of trading on Monday. There is no doubt that the price will jump to at least $80. And then everything will depend on Tehran's response.

According to analysts interviewed by the American television channel CNBC, further political destabilization in Iran is fraught with not just a significant, but a sustainable increase in commodity prices. According to JPMorgan, since 1979, there have been eight cases of regime change in major producing countries. As a result, oil prices increased by an average of 76%, and then stabilized at a level 30% higher than before the crisis. Thus, after the Islamic Revolution of 1979 in Iran, they almost tripled between mid-1979 and mid-1980. This provoked a global recession. And the events in Libya in 2011, when Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown, led to an increase in oil prices from $93 per barrel in January to $130 in April.

- Now everyone is waiting for Iran's response, - Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, said in an interview with MK. - It is unclear whether it will strike directly at US military bases in the region or limit itself to Israeli territory. However, there is an escalation, although the Trump administration is trying in every way to calm Tehran, pointing out the forced, and most importantly, one-time nature of its action. The logic is this: we could not help but intervene, we had nowhere to go, since Israel, having attacked Iran, was unable to destroy its nuclear facilities and effectively shifted the implementation of this mission to us. But the question is whether this is a one-time action on the part of Washington or whether there will be a continuation.

- How much has the risk of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz increased in this situation, in particular by mining the bottlenecks?

- For Iran, even strikes on its nuclear facilities are not a cast-iron reason to close the Strait. A large-scale attack on oil and gas infrastructure could have been such a reason, but this did not happen, except for the strike carried out by an Israeli drone on one of the enterprises at the South Pars gas field. The Iranian oil industry was not bombed either - neither ports, nor fields, nor oil pipelines. Today, the country continues to export approximately 1.5 million tons of crude oil per day, which means that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed, it will not be able to export these volumes or earn money. Its revenue will be significantly reduced. Plus, so far there are no visible attempts to destroy the Iranian leadership, despite direct threats from Israel and Trump's words: "We know exactly where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is hiding."

Yes, the United States has become a direct participant in the conflict, but its goals in this conflict are still limited. If Iran strikes American military bases in the region, then Washington can expand these goals, also going on the escalation and deciding that it is necessary to destroy the Iranian regime itself. For now, Tehran has no reason to block the Strait of Hormuz: this will bring it more harm than good. Of course, prices will grow on Monday at the opening of trading. It was not for nothing that the United States carried out its operation on the weekend so that the markets would not panic too much. Further developments in the situation will depend on signals from Iran, Israel and America.

- What do all these events mean for the Russian oil and gas sector?

- The scenario they are currently developing is the most profitable for him. But not the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is fraught with a price jump to $150, or even $200 per barrel. Ultra-high quotes kill demand: few will want and be able to buy raw materials in this case. On a global scale, consumption will decrease, and the market will then take a very long time to recover. A moderately high price over a long period of time is better than a short period of ultra-high prices. Another factor that is in our favor: the cost of exporting Middle Eastern oil is already increasing, since shipping companies do not want to keep tankers in the Persian Gulf, fearing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Accordingly, they are raising freight rates for the export of oil, oil products, and LNG. In short, let the price of Brent remain at $80 per barrel, then our Urals will cost about $70 at a discount. This way we stay within the initial budget parameter of $69.7 per barrel.