Hurricane Erin hits the Caribbean, threatening the US East Coast

Hurricane Erin lashed Caribbean islands with strong gusts and rain on Monday (18), while fears grew of rip currents and flooding on the US east coast this week, even without a land impact expected.

Erin, the first hurricane of the North Atlantic season, intensified over the weekend, briefly reaching Category 5 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale before weakening again.

In its latest report, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Erin had reached winds of up to 140 mph (220 kph) while moving northwest at 10 mph (16 kph).

Erin is "unusually large," with hurricane-force winds extending up to 80 miles (128 km) and tropical storm-force winds reaching up to 230 miles (370 km), the NHC said.

The outer part of the phenomenon is expected to bring rain over Cuba and the Dominican Republic throughout Monday, as well as in Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas, where a tropical storm warning is in effect for Tuesday.

In these regions, rainfall could reach 15 centimeters, according to the NHC.

Jamie Rhome, the agency's deputy director, warned Americans not to assume the hurricane won't have an impact just because it's tracking offshore.

“Nothing could be further from the truth for parts of the mid-Atlantic, especially off North Carolina,” he said.

On Wednesday and Thursday, waves of up to six meters, coastal flooding and cyclonic storm surges could "flood homes, roads and leave some communities inaccessible," he added.

Starting Tuesday, much of the coast will be at high risk of dangerous waves and rip currents that push water away from shore.

In Puerto Rico, a US territory with more than 3 million inhabitants devastated in 2017 by Hurricane Maria, homes and roads were flooded and there were power outages, which have since been restored in most of the territory.

– Connection to climate change –

"Erin is one of the fastest-moving and most intense storms in modern history," Daniel Gilford, a scientist at Climate Central, told AFP.

"We see that it intensified due to the warm surface temperature, and that makes a lot of sense, because we know that hurricanes act as heat engines that absorb energy from the ocean surface, converting that energy into winds," he explained.

According to Climate Central, Erin traveled over waters where extreme warming was up to 100 times more likely due to climate change.

The NHC forecasts Erin will follow a northwesterly path, passing mid-week between the east coast of the United States and Bermuda.

Hurricane Erin is expected to “grow quite spectacularly,” said NHC Director Michael Brennan.

"This will create very dangerous sea conditions across the western Atlantic and increase the risk of dangerous and potentially deadly waves and currents along much of the U.S. East Coast," he warned.

Coastal flooding is also feared, especially on islands off the coast of North Carolina. As a precaution, evacuation orders have been issued in some areas.

Erin intensified over the weekend, reaching Level 5, the maximum on the Saffir-Simpson scale, just over 24 hours after being classified as Category 1.

– Most intense season –

The North Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from early June to late November, is expected to be more intense than normal this year, according to forecasts from US meteorological authorities.

In 2024, the region was hit by several deadly storms, including Hurricane Helene, which caused more than 200 deaths in the southeastern United States.

This year, tropical activity is expected to be elevated due to a combination of warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, along with an active monsoon in West Africa, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said.

Scientists broadly agree that climate change caused by human activity is intensifying tropical cyclones.