Budget. There are no clouds on the horizon.

The new parliamentary framework resulting from the June 18th elections will allow for a much calmer summer for the government and the opposition. The Executive is already preparing the budget that it will submit to Parliament in October, just before local elections. This time, the risk of failure is very low, meaning that meetings with opposition parties are only scheduled for September. By then, the essentials of the document should already be outlined.

According to Nascer do SOL, when Luís Montenegro sits down at the table with José Luís Carneiro and André Ventura, leaders of the two largest opposition parties, on whom the approval of the State accounts for 2026 depends, "there will still be room for adjustments, as long as the document is not distorted in its essential aspect, which is compliance with the Government program."

PS free of red lines. Unlike last year, this time the Socialists are not forced to prepare for a standoff over budget approval. José Luís Carneiro made his position clear from the moment he ran for party leadership. "We will contribute to the viability of the budget, but we will not do as Dr. Manuela Ferreira Leite said, 'I don't even want to see the budget. We won't say it, because it's important to see it,'" the Socialist secretary-general said in an interview with RTP in May. Since then, the already elected PS leader has not changed his position, so when he arrives at São Bento in September to meet with the prime minister, the face-to-face meeting will not be embroiled in controversy, as was the case in 2024 with his predecessor, Pedro Nuno Santos.

When asked this week by our newspaper about his view of the talks with the government regarding the state budget, José Luís Carneiro responded that "in politics, there's a time for everything, and there's no point in rushing into things. I don't see any advantage in that for the PS." The Socialist leader's main focus on the agenda right now is the local elections. Carneiro doesn't want the noise of the budget debate to harm the Socialists in an election that is crucial for the party's future.

As explained to Nascer do SOL, "if the budget contains nothing that deviates from what was approved in the government program," the Socialist Party (PS) should not place obstacles to the approval of the state accounts presented by the AD government. Potential problems should only arise if the budget contains anything that contradicts fundamental principles. Examples? "The introduction of a privatization of the National Health Service or Social Security." Not expecting any major developments of this magnitude, José Luís Carneiro says that "the budget discussion will take place at the appropriate time and with the knowledge of data that no one currently has."

Whatever happens in September, when the Socialist leader is summoned to São Bento, one thing is certain: the country will not be left hanging by negotiations between the Socialists and the AD to determine whether the budget will pass. José Luís Carneiro won't approve the accounts blindly, but he also won't want to engage in negotiations with the government. He knows he only has to lose if he repeats his predecessor's strategy, and that, on the eve of local elections, is exactly what the Socialist Party leader doesn't want.

Chega closes in. André Ventura's strategy for the budget process is still uncertain. The Chega leader wants to save decisions for the final moment, without anticipating what he will do.

Nascer do SOL sent questions to André Ventura on this topic, but had not received a response by the time this edition went to press.

It's true that in recent weeks, the leader of the largest opposition party has been making scattered statements on the topic. Ventura spoke of an agreement with the Executive that went beyond the approval of immigration laws and a new IRS reduction later this year. According to the Chega leader, the agreement reached for the approval of the government's proposals presented before the parliamentary recess had a broader scope, which should be reflected in the next budget. It seems consensual that the agreement Ventura claims to have reached with the government, and which the Executive has intermittently tried to deny, includes a new tax cut next year for lower-income individuals. According to Ventura, this was the condition for the party not opposing the proposed €500 million IRS reduction already for this year.

When Montenegro made a similar proposal in 2024, Chega and the Socialist Party (PS) obstructed the government's intention to distribute the relief to the middle class. This time, Ventura did not oppose the tax relief being applied to the top eight income brackets, for salaries up to €6,297. According to the Chega leader, in exchange, the government committed to including a party proposal in the budget that would primarily benefit the lower income brackets.

Tough Measures But Ventura hasn't been talking just about taxes when he talks about the budget. The leader's agenda includes several issues that, he says, should be properly budgeted.

One of these, according to recent statements, is the construction of detention centers for illegal immigrants in various districts across the country. The new immigration laws, currently under consideration by the President of the Republic and the Constitutional Court, should also be reflected in the budget, according to the Chega leader. Regarding the creation of a new division within the PSP (Foreigners and Borders Unit), Ventura argues that this should correspond to a significant increase in the Public Security Police budget. This increase should include the recruitment of more police officers and a salary increase for the officers who will be part of this new unit. While Montenegro's job will be made easier on the socialist side, the same is unlikely to happen with Chega. It's true that for the government to see the budget approved, it only requires one of the two parties to abstain from voting. Apparently, this will be guaranteed with the votes of the socialist bloc. The question that remains is whether, when the document is presented, the demands the Chega leader has been discussing will be included. If this happens, although it has not been officially confirmed, it means that there was indeed an agreement between Ventura and Montenegro, which, as the Chega leader said, "is broader than simply approving the laws (IRS and immigration) in parliament."

Although there's no significant risk of rejection, the truth is that some of Ventura's demands, such as the construction of immigration detention centers throughout the country, could be considered red lines for the Socialists. And if they are, the government will have to seek approval from the party to which it has already said "no means no."