Lupi falters, but allies resist dismissal and point to 'friendly fire'

Since the revelation of the investigation into the National Institute of Social Security , the INSS, in an operation by the Federal Police and the Office of the Comptroller General of the Union, Carlos Lupi 's (PDT) tenure as Minister of Social Security has been shaky. The opposition is organizing a CPI to undermine the government, but even within the Planalto Palace there is a climate of friction.

The assessment is that the crisis could become a major problem in the reelection of Lula (PT), who has retirees and pensioners as one of the main focuses of winning votes. Lupi's alleged "negligence" could undermine the claim that the government is not facing corruption cases. Not even the accusation against the then Minister of Communications Juscelino Filho (Union) was able to associate the Lula 3 government with scandals of this type, since the investigations by the Supreme Federal Court involve acts from his period as a federal deputy.

For this reason, sectors of the Planalto Palace are advocating that Lupi resign from his position to spare Lula from a difficult decision. Allies of the minister, however, perceive the president's discomfort in dismissing him and do not believe that there are facts that directly implicate Lupi in the crimes under investigation, attributing the "friendly fire" to Sidônio Palmeira's Secom and to Minister of Institutional Relations Gleisi Hoffmann (PT).

In the PDT, it is considered certain that the government will leave in the event of his resignation. The party, however, would not migrate to the opposition, it would simply stop nominating a new head of Social Security, transferring the choice to Lula.

So far, Lupi has indicated that any eventual resignation would have to come from Lula. On Thursday 24, he told CartaCapital that he had no intention of leaving his post . And he repeated the statement in an interview with Estadão , published this Monday.

Pressure, however, increased with the dismissal of Alessandro Stefanutto as president of the INSS, following the Sem Desconto operation by the PF and CGU against fraud in the agency. On Tuesday 22, Lupi said he had “full responsibility” for the appointment of Stefanutto, who took office in July 2023.

The investigation is looking into a scheme of unauthorized discounts on benefits for retirees and pensioners. The total value of the discounts since 2019 could reach 6.3 billion reais, although it is not yet known what portion corresponds to fraud.