Financial market reduces inflation forecast for the 13th consecutive week

Analysts consulted by the Central Bank (BC) to prepare the Focus Bulletin reduced their expectations for inflation in 2025 for the 13th consecutive week. In this Monday's edition of the report, the forecast is a 4.86% increase in the Broad Consumer Price Index ( IPCA ) at the end of 2025.

The drop was 0.9 percentage points compared to the expectation indicated last week (when analysts predicted inflation of 4.95%).

The same report also offers a more modest forecast for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the sum of all wealth produced in the country. A week ago, the estimate was a 2.21% increase. Now, it's 2.18% .

The survey also predicts that the dollar will close the year at 5.59 reais . This is very similar to the previous week's (5.60) forecast.

For the ninth consecutive week, analysts consulted by the Central Bank are betting on maintaining the basic interest rate, the Selic , at 15% per year .

The Focus Bulletin is published weekly, always on Mondays. The Central Bank interviews hundreds of representatives from banks and financial consulting firms, but not all respond to every question submitted.