ETS2 is coming, and Poland isn't ready. We'll all pay the price.

• ETS2, the new EU CO2 emissions trading system, is an extension of the existing ETS (EU Emissions Trading System), which has been in force for years in heavy industry and the energy sector.
• ETS2 is to cover road transport and construction (home heating) with similar emission fees.
• By 2030, additional costs will range from 134% to 264% of the minimum wage, according to the Polish Chamber of Commerce of Coal Sellers.

The Polish Chamber of Commerce for Coal Merchants points out that it is estimated that in 2027 alone, the year ETS2 is scheduled to come into force, additional costs for the average household will increase by the equivalent of 73-144% of the minimum wage annually (depending on the building's insulation). "By 2030, additional costs will amount to 134% to 264% of the minimum wage," the Chamber notes.

PIGSW emphasizes that a 40-50 groszy increase per liter of gasoline or diesel isn't everything. LPG prices are expected to rise by 0.21 groszy/liter, and gas for heating by approximately 90 PLN/MWh.

The cost of fees will be passed on directly to consumers

"ING BSK analysts warn that fuel price increases are not only at gas stations, but also due to rising food prices (more expensive transport) and services, as well as a very likely increase in inflation, especially in countries like Poland, where 70% of home heating is based on fuels such as coal and gas," notes the Polish Chamber of Commerce of Coal Sellers.

He points out that ETS2, the new EU CO2 emissions trading system , is an extension of the existing ETS (EU Emissions Trading System), which has been in effect for years in heavy industry and the energy sector. ETS2 is intended to cover road transport and construction (home heating) with similar emissions fees.

The principle is as follows: producers of fossil fuels (coal, gasoline, diesel, gas) must purchase CO2 emission permits. They will pass the cost of these fees directly onto consumers, adding the additional costs to the price of every liter of fuel, every ton of coal, and every cubic meter of gas.

"ETS2 is expected to accelerate the EU's emission reduction by 90% by 2040 (compared to 1990), and Poland, where fossil fuel heating still dominates, will pay the highest price of all EU countries. The report by the Centre for Climate and Energy Analysis emphasizes that without changes in the adoption of the ETS2 directive, millions of households will suffer from increased energy poverty in our country," warns PIGSW.

The Chamber also notes that Minister of Climate and Environment Paulina Hennig-Kloska "said that Poland is seeking to postpone ETS2 from 2027 to 2030, which would provide additional time for insulating homes and replacing furnaces." Prime Minister Donald Tusk also recently suggested the possibility of such a change.

However, according to the Chamber, this additional time is just wishful thinking. Poland still has over 3 million old, inefficient coal and wood stoves, plus thousands of modern Class 5 coal boilers, which Poles replaced with funding from the Clean Air program and other regional programs.

According to data from the General Office of Building Control and the Clean Air program, over the six years of the program's operation only about 800,000 heating devices have been replaced (some of them with new generation coal boilers).

The Ministry wants to postpone the entry into force of ETS2. The effects have been postponed.

"This means that the pace of modernization would have to quadruple to replace all heating equipment before ETS2 comes into force! And these are just boilers. We are also talking about insulating millions of single-family homes, and there are over 5.5 million such buildings in Poland, most of which were built before 1990 and have poor or no thermal insulation," the Chamber estimates.

" According to estimates from the National Fund for Environmental Protection, the average cost of comprehensive thermal modernization is currently 100,000–150,000 PLN. Even with subsidies, few households can afford such an expense. So does anyone really believe that even half of them will be insulated within five years? This is a wishful vision, not a plan! The Ministry wants to postpone the introduction of ETS2 from 2027 to 2030. However, this will not postpone the effects, it will only postpone them," he adds.

Who's going to pay for all this? "All of us, of course!"

PIGSW points out that even if ETS2 comes into force three years later, its consequences will affect not only those who cannot replace their boiler or insulate their home, but every single Pole, because fuel at gas stations will still be much more expensive.

"Many market analysts are already indicating that the price of a liter of gasoline will increase not by 40-50 groszy, but in reality even by one złoty, if we take into account inflation, exchange rates, and rising logistics costs. Who will pay for all this? Of course, all of us! After all, it is not the fuel companies or gas importers who will feel the effects of ETS2, but millions of Polish families," concludes the Polish Chamber of Commerce of Coal Merchants.