The plot against Elly Schlein

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Regional elections today. And tomorrow? We know the title we chose for this article is strong, but the gist is exactly that: there's a conspiracy against Elly Schlein , to prevent her from actually being the center-left's candidate for prime minister in the future . The conspiracy, or if you want to be less drastic, we could also say the plan, is made up of many pieces, some of which are decidedly precarious, some of which today, during the final negotiations for the regional elections, seem distant in time. But the closer we get to the end of the legislature, the more, inevitably, the issue will take shape. The issue is simple to explain and arises from a necessary question to ask before continuing the argument, and before offering any useful information.

The question to start with is this: if it's true that the center-left is gearing up to have the broadest possible field, a field that doesn't extend from Che Guevara to Mother Teresa but from Roberto Fico to Matteo Renzi, passing through Fratoianni, Bonelli, and who knows what other centrist figure may emerge, the center-left will sooner or later have to ask itself who will lead that merry band. Elly Schlein, as secretary of the coalition's largest party, believes that role belongs to her. Aside from Matteo Renzi, many in the coalition have different ideas, including within the Democratic Party. The most prominent name in the center-left, which doesn't see Elly Schlein as an incarnation of Romano Prodi, so to speak, is none other than Romano Prodi himself . For months now, he has been discreetly waging his own informal private campaign to explain to his friends why the center-left has a duty to find an alternative to Schlein to federate the center-left of the future.

Prodi, who two days ago told Repubblica that "the opposition doesn't exist," accuses Schlein of having a limited knowledge of major international issues, a limited ability to tackle issues affecting Italy head-on, a poor understanding of business issues, a poor grasp of foreign policy challenges, a poor understanding of major global economic challenges. And without naming any names, the professor tells anyone who asks that Elly Schlein cannot lead the center-left of the future . It's not a conspiracy, of course; it's a plan, at least that much, and to this plan we must add a story involving an implicit, yet unexplained, alliance between two components of the center-left who detest each other, but who agree on this point. On one side is Giuseppe Conte's world, and on the other are the so-called reformists of the Democratic Party.

Conte and the reformists of the Democratic Party are separated by almost everything, but they are united by a dream, which both the leader of the Five Star Movement and the reformists of the Democratic Party readily acknowledge: to do everything necessary to ensure that Elly Schlein does not necessarily lead the center-left coalition of the future. Conte, of course, dreams of being himself, with a clutch, the true and only ideal candidate for prime minister of the center-left ; he knows how to do it, and the reformists of the Democratic Party, of course, dream that another former prime minister could perhaps lead the center-left of the future, someone like Paolo Gentiloni. But both sides know that either scenario is difficult, if not impossible, because the Five Star Movement is far behind the Democratic Party in the polls and because Paolo Gentiloni would be unpalatable to either Schlein's Democratic Party or Conte's Five Star Movement. And so, dreams aside, a shared goal remains, and it's the one the Democratic Party's reformists have in mind, when the time comes: not to hinder Giuseppe Conte from exercising his potential veto against Elly Schlein as coalition leader and to use the Five Star Movement president as a battering ram to seek an alternative unifier. The scenario is complicated, not a foregone conclusion, and Giuseppe Conte could use his theoretical right of veto to secure a significant future role for himself, should the center-left win. But many within the center-left believe in the plan against Elly, even if few would bet on it, and they believe in it so strongly that they've already perked up their antennas to identify possible future unifiers .

The unifier in pectore, obviously, as Fabrizio Roncone wrote a few days ago in the Corriere della Sera, is one and only one and that is the mayor of Naples, Gaetano Manfredi : outside the parties, beloved by the M5S, beloved by the PD, respected by the PD's left-wing allies, appreciated by Matteo Renzi, appreciated by almost all the former center-left prime ministers, loved by Italy's mayors, among whom there are quite a few faces who have evaluations of the PD secretary similar to those of Romano Prodi, and who will play his own game to try to be the new Prodi, who knows if with the professor's permission (just as another so-called viral mayor, like Roberto Gualtieri, mayor of Rome, would play). This isn't a conspiracy, either; it's a possibility, a prospect compatible with the early congress that the Democratic Party secretary could convene in the coming months, after the regional elections, which could likely give the Democratic Party secretary even more strength if the balls end up in the pool tables of Campania, Puglia, Tuscany, and perhaps even Marche. It's a prospect that, however, could be partially defused if the center-right were to choose to change the electoral law and introduce one that almost no one in the center-left would like except Elly Schlein. The center-right, as you know, fearing losing the next elections, dreams of changing the current electoral law, composed predominantly of single-member constituencies, to a proportional system with a coalition bonus of between 40 and 42 percent, without single-member constituencies. The center-right fears that with this electoral law, the center-left, which ran divided in the last elections, could emerge victorious by standing united .

The electoral law, however, is of interest to Schlein not for these reasons, but because the coalition's majority bonus also coincides with the nomination of the prime ministerial candidate before the elections, and forcing the allies to show their cards before the elections, perhaps by calling primaries, could give Schlein a better chance of playing his part as the future prime ministerial candidate. Naturally, the potential center that could emerge to the right of the Democratic Party—a small Margherita party, with Silvia Salis, or a small Donkey party, as Prodi would like—could also play a small role in the plan against Schlein, and evidently by expanding the center-left's shareholding structure, the options for that position would increase. The plan is complicated, complex, and difficult to imagine today, a year and a half before the elections, but the moves are there before us , the balances are intertwined in preparation for that scenario, and if you have the impression that the center-left is playing a game of X Factor over the future prime ministerial candidate, it's not just an impression: it's reality. Call Prodi to find out why.

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