10% tariffs: Meloni's early surrender, the PM bows to Trump

There will be no delays. Trump has closed the loophole that he himself had opened, or rather, that he had had opened by his spokeswoman, announcing the possibility of an extension of the truce on duties from the expected 9th July until next 1st September. No way. “ I don’t think I’ll go beyond 9th July,” the capricious president concedes to reporters from the usual presidential plane. On paper, it would mean having a week to close a deal that, despite the optimism flaunted by both sides, is actually far from being completed. Yesterday, European Commissioner Sefcovic, delegated to manage the deal on behalf of the European Commission, arrived in Washington and negotiations will continue at full speed today. But the chances of concluding a real comprehensive trade agreement in 7 days are much less than slim.

Despite the fact that time is running out, however, no one in the European capitals or even in Rome is really worrying. At this point, everyone has understood that the American president is a souk type, one of those who haggle to the last cent. The way out should be a succinct framework agreement that would leave a huge amount of “details” still to be defined pending. The negotiation would therefore continue, but starting from a fixed point : the European yes to 10% tariffs. On the bar itself, everyone in Europe – albeit reluctantly – agrees. The differences emerge when it comes to the details, that is, the trade-offs, especially the sectors excluded from the tariff increase and the strategy to adopt in the event of a lack of agreement on the aforementioned details. The hardliners, such as French President Macron but also Ursula von der Leyen , would be willing at that point to embark on an all-out war. Germany and Italy, the leaders of the dove countries, are infinitely less convinced.

Italy is perhaps the country that is most openly pushing for the immediate acceptance of 10%, defined as “acceptable” by everyone, from Giorgia to Tajani on down. Merz ’s Germany is of the same opinion. As long as, of course, the currently much higher duties, the 50% on steel and the 25% on automobiles, are also lowered to that 10%. Because those are the tariffs that weigh like millstones around the necks of the two most industrialized countries in the Union, whose production is also highly integrated. Tariffs at 10% would, it goes without saying, be a lesser evil compared to more stormy horizons, but still an evil. The president of Confindustria Orsini does not forget to underline it: “We are talking about duties not of 10 but of 23.5%, because we must take into account the 13.5% devaluation of the dollar since Trump took office”. However, even if the 10% duties are better than the 50% ones that could come into force on July 8, " it does not mean that they are sustainable" . The "very heavy repercussions" , for the president of Confindustria, could translate into the loss of 20 billion in exports and 118 thousand jobs.

Based on this alarm, the Democratic Party and the Five Star Movement are going on the attack with Secretary Schlein, who takes aim at the Prime Minister's compliance: "In order not to displease Trump, she is damaging the national interest and minimizing the impact of the 10% tariffs. Instead of fighting for an EU agreement that will thwart the trade war threatened by the US president, she is preparing for a new surrender". The Union's hardliners believe that only by accepting the risk of that trade war can Trump be forced to make an agreement that is not punitive for Europe. The big problem for the EU is also having to negotiate without really knowing what position the unpredictable American will take. In fact, nothing ensures that he will be satisfied with the framework agreement without raising the stakes to immediately snatch something more. Yesterday, the US signed an agreement with Vietnam that commits the Asian country to 20% tariffs without any reciprocity. Reciprocity is one of those details on which the US and EU are still in disagreement . The agreement with Vietnam does not seem to be the best of viaticums.

FROM

David Romoli