Trump to the EU: "Tariffs at 30% starting August 1." The sectors and countries most affected.

Starting August 1st, if confirmed, new 30% US tariffs on European products threaten to hit strategic sectors of the EU economy . The measure, announced by Donald Trump to correct the "trade imbalance" to the detriment of the US, risks severely impacting exports worth hundreds of billions.

The EU, which traded €1.68 trillion in goods and services with the United States in 2024, fears systemic repercussions and is preparing countermeasures. "We remain ready to continue working towards an agreement by August 1. At the same time, we will take all necessary measures to protect EU interests, including adopting proportionate countermeasures if necessary," the European Commission said in a statement, "taking note" of the letter sent by the US President .

The countries that will be most affected by the new measures

The 30 percent tariffs on imports of products from EU countries to the United States are identical, but the burden on different countries is different. Ireland , a champion of the European pharmaceutical industry thanks to the tax benefits granted to investors who pay only 15 percent in taxes compared to the 21 percent imposed in the US, is the country most affected by the new measures, along with Germany, which sells cars, steel, and machinery to the United States. Italy, like France, is in second place, according to an AFP analysis .

Ireland thus has a trade surplus with the United States of $86.7 billion (out of the EU's total surplus of $235.6 billion), generated precisely by the products of large American pharmaceutical groups established there, such as Pfizer, Eli Lilly, and Johnson & Johnson, as well as technology companies, including Apple, Google, and Meta. Germany, as the EU's largest economy, is under particular pressure due to its dependence on exports, with a trade surplus with the US of $84.8 billion. Chancellor Friedrich Merz had explicitly cited automotive, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and steel as sectors the EU should protect during its negotiations with the US.

Italy and France, with trade surpluses with the US of $44 billion and $16.4 billion, respectively, could be on the back foot. In both countries, agri-food, wine, and automotive sectors will be affected. In France, the aviation sector—accounting for a fifth of exports to the US—is also exposed, as are luxury goods, wines, and cognac. Among European countries, Austria and Sweden also have trade surpluses, at $13.1 billion and $9.8 billion, respectively.

The sectors most affected by Trump's measures

Pharmaceuticals: Pharmaceutical products represent the largest European export to the United States, accounting for 22.5% of total exports in 2024. They are currently exempt from the announced tariffs, but the sector remains on high alert. Some companies have already begun to increase production on American soil, while calling on the EU to simplify regulations to remain competitive in an increasingly volatile global environment.

Automotive: The European automotive sector is among the most exposed: in 2024, the EU exported approximately 750,000 vehicles to the United States, worth €38.5 billion. German brands such as BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, and Audi are the main exporters. The American market accounts for nearly a quarter of Mercedes's turnover, which also produces SUVs for export there. Meanwhile, Volkswagen has already seen a sharp decline in deliveries to the US following the first waves of tariffs.

Aeronautics: The industry is already subject to 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum and 10% on finished products, such as aircraft. Airbus and Boeing had called for the removal of customs barriers to safeguard global market balance at the Le Bourget air show in June, but the new restrictions risk increasing production costs and curbing transatlantic orders.

Cosmetics: European perfumes and cosmetics, particularly French and Italian ones, are also in the crosshairs. L'Oréal generated 38% of its 2024 revenue in the United States and imports a large portion of its luxury products (Lancôme, Armani, Yves Saint Laurent). The group is considering increasing local production, but does not rule out consumer price increases to cope with the new tax burden.

Luxury: The sector risks seeing a key market eroded: LVMH derives a quarter of its revenue from the US, 34% from wines and spirits. Bernard Arnault has called for a negotiated solution and even proposed a transatlantic free trade zone. Hermès had absorbed the previous 10% tariffs by raising prices, but a 30% increase could make its iconic products unaffordable for some American customers.

Agri-food: This could be the hardest hit sector overall, especially in Italy and France. Coldiretti is calling it a "blow" for Made in Italy: with the new tariffs, price increases would reach 45% for cheese, 35% for wine, and 42% for preserves and jams. French winemaking is also sounding the alarm: the US is its largest foreign market, with exports worth €3.8 billion in 2024.

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