Oil still has a future

Oil consumption, like it or not, remains a reliable indicator of the health of the global economy. Over the past decade, despite the pause imposed by Covid, it has continued to rise, surpassing the threshold of 100 million barrels per day . One barrel corresponds to 159 liters. The recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) signals a slowdown in consumption growth, lower than expected. The main causes? Global uncertainty related to US tariffs—which are particularly affecting the countries most exposed to Trump's offensive—and a warmer-than-expected winter, which has reduced heating demand. Supply remains abundant. OPEC may soon decide on further production cuts to support prices, which some analysts predict could fall as low as $60 a barrel. This is a problematic price for US shale oil producers, who suffer from very low profitability below this threshold. Although lower than OPEC estimates, oil demand continues to grow . The IEA is somewhat ambivalent on this issue: after calling for a halt to new fossil fuel investments to stabilize emissions, the following year it warned of the risk of shortages, calling for more investment to cope with rising consumption. According to the IEA, global demand could peak in the coming years. OPEC, however, expects it to be much later. But even after peaking, emissions will remain high, as large quantities of crude oil will continue to be burned.

Meanwhile, the electric car—which was supposed to lead the transition—is growing more slowly than expected. And no one talks about the "limits to growth" anymore, the Club of Rome report that in the 1970s prophesied the depletion of oil resources. Reality says otherwise: oil is there, and there is plenty of it. And black gold, at least in terms of available quantities, appears to have a long future.

More on these topics: