Consumers fear price increases, but industry shows signs of resilience
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The numbers
For businesses, the worst is over and they can start over again, while buyers see a prospect of rising prices for the goods they use most frequently. Istat data and Prometeia growth forecasts
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Up and down. Business confidence measured by Istat is rising for the second consecutive month on the business side: in June from 93.1 to 93.9. But it is falling on the consumer side: in the same month from 96.5 to 96.1. The first figure is in line with the latest increase in industrial production and shows how entrepreneurs have the feeling that the worst is over and we can start again . The only business sector that remains pessimistic is retail trade and this indicator matches consumer sentiment. Manufacturing is trying to stay afloat but it does not have a background of internal demand behind it that can justify the revival of motivations. The first months of '25 have not been excellent as far as domestic tourism of Italians is concerned and above all the shopping cart shows an inflation rate significantly higher than the index (2.7 against 1.6). The consumer sees before him the prospect of price increases on the goods he uses most frequently and consequently shows a drop in confidence.
Returning to industry, it is interesting to see how Prometeia asks the question of the moment (“Italy, is it true resilience?”). It speaks of unexpected factors, adding political stability, prudent management of accounts, falling interest rates and GDP growth in the first quarter. And it adds that the prospects of the Italian economy “are less exposed than other countries to the current global trade tensions” . But how long will this “slow but steady” growth path last? Not so long, to the point that Prometeia maintains its 2025 growth forecasts (+0.6 percent) that it had formulated before the resilience . However, it believes that in 2026 both the German infrastructural revival and the strengthening of Defense in Europe will be felt positively. Prometeia does not speak of the government's action on the real economy, perhaps a subliminal way of indicating its absence. What is certain is that the negative judgment on the effectiveness of the government agenda is now common to the social parties who, regardless of their closeness or otherwise to Giorgia Meloni, have resumed dialogue behind the banner "He who does it for himself does it for three".
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