Grading the Bane trade between Orlando and Memphis

The NBA offseason is still at least two Finals games away, but the trade season is already upon us.

On Sunday, the Memphis Grizzlies agreed to trade guard Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony, four first-round picks and a future pick swap.

The deal kicked off a trade window that ESPN's Brian Windhorst said could "happen faster than normal" this summer. Phoenix forward Kevin Durant has been the source of several trade rumors through the late regular season and playoffs and could be the next big name on the move.

While we wait for more trades to hit, catch up on the latest trade grades from ESPN's Kevin Pelton.

Desmond Bane to Magic in multiplayer, multipick deal

Orlando Magic get:

G Desmond Bane

Memphis Grizzlies get:

G Kentavious Caldwell-Pope G Cole Anthony 2025 first-round pick 2026 first-round pick (swap rights from Phoenix or Washington) 2028 first-round pick 2029 first-round pick swap

2030 first-round pick

Orlando: C+

In many ways, this unexpected beginning to the NBA trade season is the spiritual descendent of the New York Knicks giving up five first-round picks and a swap for Mikal Bridges on the eve of last year's draft. As in that case, it's a massive amount of pick value to give up for a player who has never been an All-Star and might never get there.

In that context, this trade makes the Bridges swap a fascinating Rorschach test. From the outside perspective, I'd view it as an overpay a year later. Bridges shook off a perplexing early shooting slump to provide the secondary offensive contributions the Knicks expected but wasn't a defensive difference-maker.

New York's uncertainty about whether the core they'd built with the subsequent Karl-Anthony Towns trade is good enough to win the title undoubtedly played into the decision to fire coach Tom Thibodeau. Yet to a team like the Magic, the Knicks getting back to the Eastern Conference finals for the first time in a quarter-century might have looked like a huge win.

It hasn't been that long for Orlando, which is 15 years removed from its latest conference finals appearance and lost in the NBA Finals the year before that. The Magic's last playoff series victory was in 2010 before they lost to the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, a drought that now spans multiple rebuilds. In the wake of a disappointing season that ended with a five-game first-round loss to the Celtics, Orlando is surely eager to change that.

The Magic were also undoubtedly influenced by the sudden power vacuum atop the East. Although the Indiana Pacers have impressed in the NBA Finals and might yet win the championship, they don't inspire the fear in other East contenders that a full-strength Boston team might have before Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury. With the second-round exit by the 64-win Cleveland Cavaliers leaving questions about their playoff viability, there's an opening for an unexpected East winner again next year.

The question then becomes whether Bane is good enough to get Orlando into that mix. He checks a lot of boxes for the Magic. Bane, who turns 27 next week, fits the timetable of Orlando's core of Paolo Banchero (22), Jalen Suggs (24) and Franz Wagner (23) better than most players of his ability the Magic could have realistically acquired.

Bane's shooting should be a godsend for the Magic, who shot a league-low 32% from 3-point range last season and somehow got worse in the playoffs. It was borderline sorcery that Orlando was remotely competitive with the Celtics while making 26% from 3. Bane's 2.4 3-pointers per game this season are more than any Magic player has made since 2019-20, just before the team's last teardown. They're also the fewest he has averaged since his rookie season.

Beyond that, Bane's development as a secondary pick-and-roll playmaker fits well alongside Banchero, Suggs and Wagner, all of whom are dangerous with the ball but aren't full-time ball handlers. Benefiting in part from Memphis' superior spacing, Bane averaged more points per direct chance out of ball screens (.988) than any Orlando player who ran at least 250 last season, per GeniusIQ tracking. Wagner was the only high-volume Magic player to surpass 0.92 points per chance as a ball handler.

Before the rest of the offseason plays out, I'd probably have Orlando fourth in my preliminary East rankings for 2025-26, behind Cleveland, Indiana and New York, but ahead of Boston based on the likelihood of the Celtics shedding a core player for financial purposes.

A deep playoff run by the Magic will be contingent on Suggs staying healthy after missing all but one game after Jan. 3 due to a cartilage injury that required season-ending surgery. It will probably also require development from Banchero and Wagner, with Banchero needing to show stronger efficiency with more help on offense and Wagner needing to get his 3-point shooting back near league average to be a viable floor spacer.

Internal improvement is critical to Orlando's postseason upside because this will likely be the team's last big swing via trade. The Magic are already looking at potentially paying the luxury tax in 2025-26, and will in fact need to decline at least one of their team options on four players (Gary Harris, Caleb Houstan, Cory Joseph and Moritz Wagner) to complete this trade without running afoul of a hard cap triggered by aggregating players.

The Orlando salary crunch will get worse in 2026-27, when Banchero begins his next contract. Having made the All-Star team at age 21, the former No. 1 pick is sure to get a max extension that could increase to 30% of the cap if he earns All-NBA honors next season. Either way, that will give the Magic four players making at least $32.4 million in 2026-27, forcing difficult choices.

Well down the road, Orlando could benefit financially from the combination of the salary cap rising the maximum possible 10% annually as the NBA's new national TV deals are phased in. The Magic's stars have smaller year-to-year raises and Suggs' extension begins at its maximum point before descending. That will be especially important if Orlando hits the repeater tax by 2028-29, the last year of Bane's contract.

Ultimately, the finances are the biggest reason to be skeptical of the Magic giving up nearly all the first-round picks they could trade. (Orlando did retain this year's No. 25 pick, which came from the Denver Nuggets to complete the trade sending Aaron Gordon to Denver.) The Knicks gave up five first-rounders for Bridges in part because he was on a bargain contract, making a combined $48.2 million this season and next. That trade might also have factored into Jalen Brunson's willingness to sign a below-market extension last summer.

Bane's contract, which averages $40.8 million over the next four seasons with an additional $1.35 million average bonus for winning a championship (per ESPN's Bobby Marks) is certainly reasonable but not a notable value. Orlando, already paying its other stars appropriately, is betting on fit and internal development to win big and justify this move.

Memphis: B

The Bridges analogy doesn't hold on the other side of this trade. Whereas the Brooklyn Nets were clearly motivated to move Bridges at the peak of his value and rebuild after missing the playoffs, what comes next is harder to tell for Memphis.

It's hard to believe just three months ago, the Grizzlies were tied for second in the West with Taylor Jenkins as their coach. A 2-8 skid later, Memphis had replaced Jenkins with Tuomas Iisalo en route to getting swept in the first round as the No. 8 seed. Now, the Grizzlies have broken up the core of Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant that won 50-plus games in both 2021-22 and 2022-23 and Memphis' only playoff series since 2015.

Bane obviously wasn't the issue with that group, which hasn't really been the same since Morant's suspensions for conduct detrimental to the league relating to his use and display of guns. Even last year's run was more about the Grizzlies' depth than their star power. Jackson was Memphis' only All-Star, and no Grizzlies player has made an All-NBA team since Morant in 2021-22.

If Memphis was convinced this group was no longer good enough, resetting around Jackson with three extra first-round picks plus one to replace this year's first-rounder (sent to the Washington Wizards at the deadline to shed Marcus Smart's salary) makes some sense. But trading Bane only deepens the Grizzlies' need for top-end talent.

In the short term, Memphis should be even deeper after this trade. Although Caldwell-Pope struggled as a shooter in Orlando, hitting 3s at his lowest accuracy (34%) since 2015-16, he was outstanding defensively and should be an upgrade for the Grizzlies at that end of the court. And Anthony would give them an additional ballhandling option behind Morant and Scotty Pippen Jr. Having seen his efficiency decline after two seasons as a high-end backup point guard, Anthony is probably due to bounce back as well.

Another move is likely coming for Memphis, which added to its 2025-26 salary with this trade. The Grizzlies had seemingly been targeting cap space with an eye toward renegotiating Jackson's contract in conjunction with a long-term extension, the only way to realistically get him signed long term after he missed out on All-NBA and supermax eligibility. Moving John Konchar's $6.2 million salary would give Memphis sufficient room to bump up Jackson's contract by about $10 million and offer him an extension starting at nearly $48 million.

As picks in a deal like this go, the Grizzlies got some with reasonable upside. In addition to this year's No. 16 pick -- higher than either of the two 2025 selections the Nets landed in the Bridges deal (No. 19 and No. 26) -- Memphis also moves higher in the pecking order for next year's Phoenix Suns first-rounder.

The Grizzlies already held swap rights with the Suns, but only after potential swaps with both the Wizards and Magic. Now, Memphis moves up a spot, ending up with the better of Orlando's 2026 first-rounder and the worse of ones belong to Phoenix and Washington. If both the Suns and Wizards miss the playoffs, the Grizzlies will yield a 2026 lottery pick from this trade.

Still, none of this solves Memphis' fundamental issue. Until or unless Morant gets back to playing like a star, the Grizzlies might be shuffling deck chairs through the expiration of his contract in 2028.