Could Texas, Georgia or Clemson miss the 2025 CFP? Odds each playoff team from a year ago fails to make field
We're still in the early stages of an expanded College Football Playoff era, so much so that the final format hasn't even taken shape. There's a chance this year's playoff will look different than last year's, and there's no doubt the 2026 format will change significantly after that.
The teams that will be in the bracket are what interest me, however. Will we see the same eight or nine teams making it every year, with a few newbies mixed in? Or will NIL, the transfer portal, and all the other possible changes on the horizon lead to an age of true parity that has the CFP resembling the NFL playoffs?
My guy says it'll be the former, but I won't rule out the latter. Either way, we won't have enough evidence to make a decision one way or another for a decade, but I'm an impatient man. And an impatient man wants to make decisions now. I decided to look at last year's 12-team field and break them down into tiers of how surprised we should be if they miss next season's College Football Playoff. We'll start with the highest level of surprise, and teams are listed in alphabetical order by tier.
Returning from the store to find Bigfoot sitting on your couch, in your robe, smoking a pipeAnother of my theories involving the expanded playoff era is that it will be damn near impossible to repeat as champion; any program that does will be a truly special one. Given all Ohio State lost off last year's champions, it's difficult to see the Buckeyes hoisting the trophy again. But they can.
Yes, there are a lot of question marks, but they might have the best offensive weapon in the sport in receiver Jeremiah Smith, and they may have the best defensive player too in Caleb Downs. But even if the 2025 team isn't as good as 2024, it's extremely difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Buckeyes lose enough games to miss out.
I gave some consideration to moving Texas down a tier for scheduling reasons. They open the season with Ohio State and have Georgia on the road late. Toss in a bunch of SEC games against other potential playoff contenders, and the path will not be easy.
In the end, though, I couldn't do it. In my estimation, the Longhorns are the best team in the country until it shows otherwise. I know Arch Manning isn't proven yet, but talent-wise, he's an upgrade of the banged-up version of Quinn Ewers the Longhorns had to rely on last season. The team is too good to lose enough games to miss out.
Which teams have the best odds to win the national championship next season? See the latest futures at FanDuel sportsbook.
Your 16-year-old child isn't yoursIt feels sacrilegious not to have the Bulldogs in that top tier, doesn't it? I know it took me a while to come to peace with it myself, but I think even the most fervent Georgia fan will agree if they take the time to truly think about it.
The great Georgia teams of recent years were built on incredible defense -- a defense that slipped last year, ranking No. 29 nationally in points allowed per possession and No. 23 in success rate. On offense, there's a new, unproven quarterback playing behind an offensive line replacing key starters on the interior, and the interior of the line was its strength last season. The schedule has road games against Tennessee and Auburn. There are home dates against Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Florida. It'll still be pretty damn surprising if Georgia misses the playoff, but when you lay it all out like that, it's not as impossible as you may think.
This isn't to say there aren't questions surrounding the Fighting Irish in 2025. There's a new quarterback, and last year's team lost other significant contributors as well. The idea that Notre Dame will reach a second consecutive title game is very much in doubt.
It's hard to imagine the Irish will miss the playoff, though. After all, the new Pope is from Chicago, so you know the confidence level in South Bend is through the roof right now. Perhaps more importantly, there's the schedule. It's a tough start at Miami and against Texas A&M, and there are other games in there that won't be easy. But even if the Fighting Irish drop a couple of them, it's difficult to envision this team losing enough games that they'll miss out on the expanded field.
There's a real chance Oregon flips it around and relies more on a great defense this season than an explosive offense, but in the end, the Ducks should be fine. This will be the first season Dan Lanning's recruiting classes truly show up on the depth chart, and teams filled with five-star players tend to win a lot of games, no matter how many questions we have about them before the season begins.
Plus, the schedule is not that tough, all things considered. There's a road game to Penn State, but there's no Ohio State this season. Nobody will be surprised if the Ducks are 9-1 going into their final two games of the season against USC and Washington.
The final scene of "The Sopranos" going darkClemson is the heavy favorite to win the ACC at most sportsbooks, and that would be enough to get the Tigers into the field with ease -- at least, it should be. Considering how things have gone in the ACC lately, it may not be a guarantee. After all, Clemson won the ACC last year and was thrown to the wolves as a 12-seed.
That is certainly playing a role in why I've put the Tigers in this tier. I get they have a veteran QB in Cade Klubnik and plenty going for them. I know they'll be the most talented team on the field most weekends. But that was the case last year, and it didn't keep the Tigers from losing to Louisville and South Carolina at home.
This year's schedule isn't any easier. While the Tigers don't open with Georgia, they do open with LSU, and they still finish at South Carolina. They'll also be on the road against Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Louisville, with home dates against the SMU team that nearly beat them in the ACC Championship Game and a Florida State squad that can't possibly be as bad as it was last year (can it?). When you're coming from the ACC, there's little margin for error.
Penn State fans have convinced themselves the Nittany Lions are winning it all next season because of what they have coming back, and while I understand the fervor, I'm approaching this team with cautious optimism. They have a good quarterback and an excellent pair of running backs. The defense lost Abdul Carter, but this is a program that develops pass-rushers with ease, so I'm sure they'll still be terrorizing opposing backfields.
The problem is Penn State's inability to "win the big one." Last year, the Nittany Lions reached the semifinals, but their playoff wins came against an SMU team that had been Group of Five a year prior and a Boise State team that was the Group of Five representative. In the regular season, the Lions faced two CFP teams in Ohio State and Oregon, and lost both. Then, when they ran into another "big one" in Notre Dame, they lost that game, too.
The 2025 schedule includes two "big ones" in Oregon and Ohio State. If those games play to the usual result, that means the Nittany Lions need to be perfect in their other 10 games. They can pull that off, but if they lose those two and then slip up in a game against Iowa, Nebraska or Indiana? I don't think 9-3 with that schedule will be enough.
A magician pulls a coin from behind your ear, but you're 30 years oldNothing that can happen in the Big 12 should surprise anybody. For example, Arizona State won the Big 12 last season -- the same Arizona State that went 3-9 each of the previous two seasons and was playing in a new conference. The one nobody gave a chance to win the Big 12. Yeah, that one. Big 12 fans hate when you bring it up, but the league is the most competitive of the Power Four conferences by far because the gap between the best and worst teams is not nearly as significant as everywhere else. Any single team in the conference can win it. Arizona State's the proof.
The Broncos should be one of the better Group of Five teams in the country because they're annually one of the better Group of Five teams in the country, but will they be the best? It's possible, but that Ashton Jeanty guy was pretty dang good, and I don't know that the Broncos can dominate the same way they did last season without him.
I have plenty of faith in Curt Cignetti as a coach and leader of a program, but I also know a lightning strike when I see one. Last year's Indiana team was a lightning strike. Damn near everything went right, including the schedule. I don't expect this team to fall off a cliff in 2025, and it could very well compete for an at-large yet again, but how surprised can anybody truly be if the Indiana Hoosiers don't make the playoff?
It was a fantastic first season for the Mustangs in the ACC, but this team caught plenty of breaks, too. The Mustangs should feel no shame for winning games and taking advantage of Florida State being putrid and Miami's defense being incapable of stopping anybody. Still, the Mustangs played two playoff teams last season and lost to both. This year's schedule features Clemson and Miami, as well as two difficult nonconference games against Baylor and TCU. Odds are if the ACC is to get multiple teams in the field again, it's Clemson and Miami taking the honors.
Nico Iamaleava's sudden departure for UCLA is the headliner of the offseason, but he's hardly the only significant contributor from last year's squad who won't be back. The Vols open the season with a tricky game against Syracuse and get Georgia and Oklahoma at home in SEC play, as well as Alabama and Florida on the road. I'd be more surprised if the Vols return to the playoff than if they miss it.
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