Travel to the U.S. is down even more dramatically than we thought, data shows

The boycott by Canadians of travel to the U.S., driven largely by an aversion to President Donald Trump, his industry-wrecking tariffs and 51st state taunts, has actually been more effective than previously thought, according to new data.

While official Statistics Canada figures show a roughly 25 per cent decline in Canadian residents returning from the U.S. last year, cell phone data compiled by researchers at the University of Toronto's School of Cities found that the year-over-year drop in cross-border trips was closer to 42 per cent.

The researchers analyzed data from Canadian mobile devices travelling to U.S. metro areas between April 1, 2025 — the day Trump famously dubbed "liberation day" as he imposed global tariffs — and March 31, 2026.

They found the decline was even more dramatic in some warm weather locales that have historically been hot spots for Canadians fleeing winter weather.

In Myrtle Beach, S.C., the number of trips by Canadians was down 65 per cent year-over-year, according to the cell phone data, giving it the dubious title of the metro area with the steepest drop.

In the Florida cities of Panama City, Orlando, Cape Coral, Miami and Naples, the number of Canadian visitors fell by 50 per cent or more.

But cratering demand wasn't recorded only in those sunny destinations. Trips to San Francisco, New York, Ann Arbor and Grand Rapids, Mich., Boston and other business centres have also fallen by more than half, according to the data.

In fact, of the 267 U.S. metro areas analyzed by researchers, only three — Cleveland, Portland, Ore., and Gainesville, Fla. — showed an increase in visits by Canadians last year.

In an interview with CBC News, Karen Chapple, the lead researcher and director of the School of Cities, said the drop in tourism to popular destinations like Orlando, as well as border communities like Buffalo, N.Y., has been well-documented.

What her cell phone data makes clear is that the Canadian boycott is affecting cities both big and small across the States — and it's not just leisure travel that has dried up.

The self-imposed travel ban has extended to high-tech, financial and industrial centres, signalling that cross-border business and trade patterns have fundamentally shifted over the last year.

"I have been using the word 'sea change,'" Chapple said of the data she and her team uncovered.

"And the places most impacted by the tariffs are also the ones most affected by the loss of travel," she said, pointing to some Michigan cities like Flint that have trade ties to Ontario's auto sector. "These declines are really tied to the composition of the local economies."

And as some data shows return trips from overseas countries are up, Chapple said Canadian businesses may be doing more work in countries abroad now that the U.S. market has become less hospitable.

"Some people are saying, 'You know what, I'm actually gonna make a deal with the Netherlands or China instead of Texas,'" she said.

Chapple said her data is more granular than what the Canada Border Services Agency can compile and report to StatsCan.

For example, one thing Chapple has tracked is that Canadians are visiting fewer places when they do go to the U.S.

"People are not visiting multiple metros, and it could be that folks are popping over for that quick trip to see grandma, but they're not doing the side trip for work or for play," she said.

The cell phone data also includes freight-related travel by truck drivers, who are generally excluded from the government's "return trip" figures that are widely used to gauge cross-border visits.

The U.S. Travel Association last year said a 10 per cent drop in Canadian tourism would cost the American economy about $2.1 billion US.

If Chapple's data is an accurate reflection of what's going on, that means Canadians holding back on U.S. travel may have cost the economy about $8.4 billion US and counting.

Speaking at a progressive political conference last weekend, Prime Minister Mark Carney applauded Canadians' efforts to stand up to the Americans as the trade dispute with Trump drags on.

"Canadians have been keen to do their bit effectively — buy Canadian, visit their country," he said, adding that the grassroots movement to eschew some foreign goods has inspired the government to prefer domestic firms in its own procurement process.

"These are seemingly little but incredibly important things," Carney said.

The drop in cross-border movement has also been a seismic shift for some Canadian businesses that depend on the flow of travellers.

Barbara Barrett, executive director of the Frontier Duty Free Association, a trade group representing the mostly family-owned stores that dot the Canadian side of the border, said the steeper drop-off figures are more believable than the StatsCan data, based on how badly sales have plummeted at some of her members' outlets.

"It's really dismal, that's what we're seeing on the ground," Barrett said in an interview shortly after hopping off a Zoom call with store owners to get an update on the current conditions.

"There was no optimism on this call. We have a few members who are seriously looking at having to shut their doors if things don't change really soon," she said.

She added that some stores in more remote locations have seen sales drop by 80 per cent since 2019, the last time things were "normal" at the border.

Although there was an expectation that things might bounce back by now, about 15 months into this travel boycott the business outlook remains dismal.

"It's just down, down, down," she said.

The Canadian boycott has been particularly damaging for the gambling mecca of Las Vegas where visitors from the north have historically been the biggest source of foreign tourism by far.

But new data released by the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority shows Mexican visitors nearly outpaced Canadians last year as the gap between the two groups narrowed considerably.

According to historical figures reviewed by CBC News, this is the first time outside of COVID that the number of Mexican visitors has nearly outpaced those coming from Canada.

Last year, 1,196,300 Canadians visited Sin City, a 17 per cent decrease from the year before. Meanwhile, the number of Mexicans was up about one per cent year-over-year, according to the visitors authority.

Recent data from the region's Harry Reid International Airport also shows that slumping demand has not improved so far this year.

WestJet, the airport's largest international carrier, brought about 22 per cent fewer passengers in March compared to the same month last year.

The number of Air Canada passengers destined for Vegas dropped by 20 per cent.

The declines were even more pronounced at Porter Airlines (50 per cent) and Flair (68 percent), as they moved only a few thousand passengers — a huge decline from past passenger loads.

Those figures come even after some casinos started running at-par promotions to lure Canadians back to the desert with the promise of favourable exchange rates.

The decline recently prompted Las Vegas Mayor Shelley Berkley to make a plea to disappearing Canadian tourists.

"I'm telling everybody in Canada, please come. We love you, we need you, and we miss you," she said.