'Half a ton falling from the sky': Soviet-era space probe to crash to Earth on Saturday

"That's still a half-ton thing that's going to fall from the sky," astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell warned Sky News. And for good reason: on Saturday, a Soviet-era space probe is expected to crash back to Earth after remaining in orbit for more than half a century, the BBC reported on Friday, May 9.

Launched in 1972 from Kazakhstan, the Cosmos 482 probe was on a mission to Venus, but failed to leave low Earth orbit and broke into four pieces, according to NASA.

As a result, one of the fragments will re-enter Earth's atmosphere, and part of the lander, including the probe, may survive without burning up. The Space Agency expects its arrival at 9:16 a.m. (French time), but this date could vary by several hours. Experts currently do not yet know where it might land.

"It's much more likely that you'll win the lottery than that you'll be hit by this space debris," said Stijn Lemmens, a senior space debris mitigation analyst at the European Space Agency.

The capsule, which takes the form of a sturdy spherical object about a meter wide and weighing nearly half a ton, was built to survive the extreme heat and pressure of Venus's atmosphere, meaning it has a robust heat shield and a durable structure.

But what are the concrete risks of this arrival? While experts believe the debris could survive an uncontrolled descent into Earth's atmosphere, experts indicate that the parachute system, designed to slow the lander's descent, has probably long since degraded after more than 50 years in space.

However, the risk to people is rather low, but the capsule's planned flight path could allow it to land anywhere, whether London or Colombia.

A priori , there is no cause for concern, since "the re-entry of man-made objects into the Earth's atmosphere is quite common," analyst Stijn Lemmens explained to British media outlet Sky News. According to several French scientists, "the main danger lies in collisions between satellites and space debris."

Today, French scientists estimate that there are 34,000 objects larger than 10 centimeters orbiting the Earth.