The Left versus Bayrou: the gamble of September 10

The countdown has begun. As François Bayrou holds a surprise back-to-school press conference this Monday, August 25, he knows he has just under a month to count his supporters before the announced tabling, upon the parliamentary resumption on September 23, of a motion of censure by LFI, which, even if not immediately examined, will set the tone for the season. They will be the first to draw, but probably not the only ones, as the budgetary savings announcements providing for 44 billion in efforts have also been denounced by both the Socialist Party and the National Rally. Without a majority, François Bayrou knows that this first return to school as Prime Minister has every chance of being his last.

In his confidences to the Sunday press, he nevertheless wants to be combative, hoping for a last-minute surge from the parties. It is above all public opinion that he hopes to convince, but his rigorous discourse calling for individual responsibility does not seem to be a hit. His attempt at modernization and direct democracy via a few YouTube videos either. On the contrary, the calls for mobilization on September 10 are meeting with some response, even if we still do not really know what the call of "Block everything" will actually lead to. Marked by the memory of the yellow vests, Jean-Luc Mélenchon , followed by Fabien Roussel, Marine Tondelier and Olivier Faure, clearly suggest that this time the train of citizen mobilization will not start without them, even if paradoxically their association with the movement does not extinguish it.

It will at least allow the Prime Minister to gauge his unpopularity on September 10, depending on what will actually be blocked – or not. The left is hoping that the mobilization will be sufficient to obtain significant concessions on the divisive points of the budget, particularly those that fuel the feeling of social injustice . After a studious summer and perhaps before a forced leave, François Bayrou is counting the hours and friends he has left.