Political maneuvers, risk of censorship... Is François Bayrou risking his life with the end of the pension conclave?

The moment of truth. The pensions conference launched in early February is scheduled to end this Tuesday evening. While François Bayrou has said he is prepared to grant "a few more days," all social partners want to end the process quickly and reach an agreement, even a minimal one.

The left is now waiting for him to arrive in Parliament so that he can finally decide on this reform, which was never voted on by the deputies . But the sequence is high risk for the Prime Minister, who could find himself censured by the socialists who are not pretending.

"We are still able to submit a motion of censure if François Bayrou does not keep his commitments. It is an option that is being put on the table with great seriousness," Socialist MP Laurent Baumel threatened to BFMTV.

Yet it is the centrist himself who has been behind these weekly meetings between unions and employers for the past three months. To extract a no-censorship agreement from the Socialists on the budgets last January, François Bayrou made a deal with the Socialist MPs .

In exchange for the goodwill of Olivier Faure's troops in the Social Assembly, Matignon undertook to raise all issues related to pension reform, "without taboo or totem" .

But very quickly, the discussions hit a snag, with unions slamming the door on negotiations and the head of government himself removing the transition to retirement at 64 from the discussions , despite the main point of disagreement. This has already aroused the anger of the socialists .

"There was a bit of a 'now that the Socialist Party has won, I have a free hand and I'll move my pawns forward and too bad if they're not happy' attitude," admits a Modem MP.

Anxious to reach an agreement, even a minimal one, between the social partners, François Bayrou launched a last-minute proposal this weekend in the columns of La Tribune on Sunday, mentioning the creation of a "bonus" for senior employees . While the measure has aroused skepticism among the unions, it should not prevent the social partners from reaching a consensus in the end.

But what next? Socialist Party First Secretary Olivier Faure explained back in January that he hoped Parliament "would have the final say" on pension reform, whether there was a full, partial, or no agreement at all between the social partners.

François Bayrou, for his part, had mentioned "referring to Parliament" during the next social security budget in the autumn "or before and if necessary by law", if the unions "reached a balanced and fairer agreement".

But any debate on the subject could turn into a nightmare for François Bayrou, who could be censored by the entire left and the National Rally, immediately leading to his downfall.

Fully aware of the risk, the centrist deliberately maintains vagueness regarding the advisability of referring the matter to the National Assembly. Asked about Parliament's role in the pension issue, he finally explained in La Tribune on Sunday that "everything will depend on whether or not the agreement includes legislative provisions."

Please note: it is possible that some changes requested by the social partners do not require the approval of the deputies, thus avoiding the risk of censure.

"He must keep the commitments he made to us, which have always been to have a bill on all pension-related issues," demands Socialist Party MP Emmanuel Grégoire.

"It seems like he wants to step over the Assembly and avoid falling. This isn't very serious," the Parisian elected official continues to complain.

In any case, it's hard to imagine François Bayrou being able to truly do without Parliament. The main avenues discussed, whether it's the development of long careers , the return of certain hardship criteria , or the development of additional benefits for mothers, all need to be enshrined in law.

"As is often the case, François Bayrou is trying to gain time. The later the pension issue comes before the deputies, the better it is for him. And too bad if it all seems to be decided on a somewhat shaky corner of the table," explains a Macronist deputy who is closely following the issue.

"He's the master of the clock on this one. He doesn't have many cards in his hand given the few people who support him in the Assembly, apart from this one. So he's not going to hold back," shares a ministerial advisor.

The Prime Minister could use the return of MPs to the House in the autumn to insert certain pension provisions into the social security budget. By then, we will be only five months away from the municipal elections .

In a complicated political context for the socialists, closely followed in several large cities by the rebels , François Bayrou is betting that Olivier Faure's troops will not want to overthrow him at that time.

Suffice to say that the socialists have every interest in wanting to speed up the timetable and being able to decide on the conclave agreement before July 11 and the end of parliamentary work .

In the event of censure at that time, the departure of François Bayrou would in fact give Emmanuel Macron time to find a successor before the start of the school year to work on the budgets or organize a possible new dissolution, something that has so far been ruled out by the head of state .

"Frankly, does anyone really want to play the sorcerer's apprentice by censoring François Bayrou, putting the country in a mess without a budget in the fall? None of this is serious," fumes a Horizons MP.

Even beyond the political questions that François Bayrou's departure would raise, the hypothesis seems unlikely, due to a lack of space on the agenda. Between a reform of the status of elected officials, debates on nuclear power , and the bill on public broadcasting, it seems very difficult to find time to debate pensions.

The Ministry of Relations with Parliament denies any calculation of 3-cushion billiards.

"We're not going to start blackmailing people with dates. Social democracy deserves better than this. All of this will manage to fit into the Assembly's machinery," swear those close to Patrick Mignola.

As for the substance of the agreement, it is unlikely to reassure the Socialists. "If there is no measure relating to the legal retirement age, I can see how we could approve it," summarized Socialist Party MP Jérôme Guedj.

But it is extremely unlikely that the end of the 64-year age limit will ultimately be on the table, as the Medef (French employers' association) has already shown its inflexibility on the subject . Without wanting to say so very clearly, the unions have taken note of this situation . They are not expected to give up on demanding a return to 62, but could very likely sign an agreement if the retirement age were lowered for certain categories of people.

La France Insoumise, for its part, has already issued a warning. "If the 64-year-old retirement reform is not repealed, we will propose to all left-wing groups that they submit a motion of censure," explained LFI President Mathilde Panot from the National Assembly this Tuesday morning.