Surprise! Iran Is Much Stronger Than Trump Has Been Claiming.

In the year of our Lord 1864, General William Tecumseh Sherman divided his massive army into two huge columns and set out on what our current president likely would call an “excursion” to Savannah on the sea. Along the way, he made a mess out of Georgia, doing an estimated $100 million (in 1864 dollars) worth of damage. (That’s roughly $2.1 billion in today’s money.) He essentially destroyed Georgia as a member state of the Confederacy. That’s what “complete demolition” looks like. From The New York Times:

The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities. Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway. People with knowledge of the assessments said they show—to varying degrees, depending on the level of damage incurred at the different sites—that the Iranians can use mobile launchers that are inside the sites to move missiles to other locations. In some cases they can launch missiles directly from launchpads that are part of the facilities. Only three of the missile sites along the strait remain totally inaccessible, according to the assessments.

“Complete demolition” ain’t what it used to be.

What used to be called “the Vietnam Syndrome” basically had one simple commandment: Thou Shalt Not Bullshit the American People About a War. And, all due respect to Poppy Bush, in that context, we didn’t kick the Vietnam Syndrome. The country can still be stampeded into an ill-conceived war. His own son proved that in Iraq. But now, with this administration and Iran, to paraphrase Nathan (Huffhines) Arizona, the Vietnam Syndrome has caught up with a vengeance.

Military intelligence agencies have also reported, based on information from multiple collection streams including satellite imagery and other surveillance technologies, that Iran has regained access to roughly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now assessed to be “partially or fully operational,” the people with knowledge of the assessments said.

On March 9, ten days into the war, Mr. Trump told CBS News that Iran’s “missiles are down to a scatter” and the country had “nothing left in a military sense.” Mr. Hegseth declared at a Pentagon news conference on April 8 that Operation Epic Fury—the joint U.S.-Israel campaign launched on February 28—had “decimated Iran’s military and rendered it combat-ineffective for years to come.” The intelligence describing Iran’s remaining military capacity is dated less than a month after that news conference.

“Decimation” ain’t what it used to be either.