Climate change to blame as heatwave hits Europe's economies

It would have been "virtually impossible" for such exceptional temperatures to occur in June fifty years ago, the World Weather Attribution group of scientists said.

A similar heatwave would have been 3.5C cooler during the day in June 1976, concluded the study by scientists from Europe, the United States and the United Kingdom.

But the world is hotter today and "the chance of a heatwave like this has changed immensely", said the study's lead author Theodore Keeping from Imperial College London.

READ ALSO: Why Europe is warming faster than the rest of the world

"This event would not have been possible in June without climate change," Keeping told reporters.

The planet has warmed about 1.4C above pre-industrial times, driven by the burning of coal, oil and gas.

Scientists agree this is making extreme weather events like heatwaves more frequent and intense, and that limiting warming is vital to avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.

Europe is the world's fastest-warming continent and tens of millions of people have sweltered this week in temperatures that broke records in some countries.

"The weather pattern itself is not particularly unusual, but the temperatures are -- or at least they used to be, without human-induced climate change," Friederike Otto, the co-founder of World Weather Attribution from Imperial College London, told reporters.

'Unpleasant and dangerous'

As the heatwave is still unfolding, scientists used observed and forecast temperatures to compare this heatwave against how it might have behaved in the cooler climates of 2003 and 1976.

Even compared to 2003 -- when tens of thousands of people died in a major European heatwave -- the current episode was notably extreme, the authors said.

A similar heatwave in June 2003 would have been about 2C cooler, the study said.

"In 2003... daytime heat like this would still have been very rare", while overnight temperatures would have been more than a hundred times less likely.

"Our analysis here shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly even in living memory, with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago," said the study.

"Climate change is unequivocally to blame."

The El Nino weather pattern -- a natural warming climate phase -- had "no role in driving the heat", the authors said.

Otto also singled out the threat of "heat stress" posed by the combination of high temperatures and humidity.

Heat stress occurs when the body's natural cooling systems are overwhelmed, causing symptoms ranging from dizziness and headaches to organ failure and death.

Of the nearly 850 cities in Europe analysed in the study, some 45 percent had broken -- or were expected to break -- their all-time heat stress records in June, the study said.

This made the heatwave "particularly unpleasant and dangerous", Otto said.

This episode is the second of the year for Europe after an early-season heatwave in May brought temperatures more typical of high summer to central and western parts of the continent.

World Weather Attribution said the rapid phase out of fossil fuels was "critical if we are to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences in the future".

European economies suffer from heatwave

This comes as financial experts point out the economic impacts of heatwaves and the consequences they can have on food supplies.

"Extreme heat is emerging as a structural economic risk, with Europe highly exposed," wrote the trade credit arm of European insurer Allianz as the continent swelters under its second heatwave of the year.

Europe has a number of weaknesses: an ageing population, dense urban centres with many buildings not built for extreme heat, and just 19 percent of households with air conditioning compared to 90 percent in the United States, the analysts noted.

Heatwaves are becoming frequent as Europe warms faster than other regions of the world, and many scientists consider human activity will cause more extreme weather events.

"France is working in slow mode," recently observed Patrick Martin, head of Medef, France's main employers' organisation.

"Inevitably, it disrupts work and leads to less work being accomplished," he told BFM television.

Allianz Trade has identified "a critical threshold" of around 30C beyond which productivity losses intensify rapidly.

According to AFP's calculations more than 100 million people in Europe were set to experience temperatures in excess of 35C on Thursday, and nearly two-thirds of Europeans living where temperatures would surpass 30C.

READ ALSO: LATEST - More than 100 million Europeans suffer in temperatures above 35C

Medium-term impact

In a blog post last year the European Central Bank said heatwaves in the spring, autumn and winter can boost economic activity, particularly construction, agriculture and outdoor dining.

"By contrast, heatwaves during the already warmer summers reduce economic activity, as physical exertion outdoors becomes increasingly impaired," it said.

Drops in productivity, the need to shift investment to climate adaptation, and energy price hikes that dampen purchasing power all contribute to a drop in economic activity.

ECB research found that summer heatwaves reduce regional activity of around one percent.

And in contrast to traditional views of a temporary disruption, the ECB found "the reduction in output is prolonged and even intensifies, reaching a trough of 1.5 percent lower after two years".

The Banque de France's new governor, Emmanuel Moulin, recently told France Inter radio that "there is clearly a negative effect on growth in the medium term".

Food supplies a concern

Extreme heat, which can provoke a hike in energy prices thanks to higher demand due to air conditioning, can also contribute to higher food prices and inflation over the medium term as it curtails yields and disrupts supply chains.

The ECB calculated that a 2022 drought caused European food prices to rise 0.7 percentage points. Olive crops were particularly affected, with the price of olive oil skyrocketing.

The central bank is concerned that climate change related increases in food prices could increase and create more difficulties for it to forecast inflation.

"Without a rapid shift that commits to climate adaptation and carbon neutrality, these phenomena risk becoming a long‑term structural drag on the economy," said Hazem Krichene, a climate and sustainability economist at Allianz.

He called for better coordination at the European level to act preventively.

Allianz Trade ran a stress scenario under which the five hottest years in each country between 2014 and 2024 were repeated between now and 2030.

It calculated that it could lead to cumulative losses in gross domestic product of between five and seven percent.

That would be a hit of $240 billion for France, $147 billion for Italy, $131 billion for Germany and $120 billion for Spain.

Tax revenue would also be hit, causing an estimated drop of 1.8 percent in France, just as expenses on infrastructure and health care need to be boosted.

That would worsen the already difficult situation many European countries find themselves in concerning budget deficits and debt, with their capacity to borrow constrained.