Who can be president?

In his investiture debate, Pedro Sánchez burst into uncontrolled laughter from the floor of Congress, concluding: Alberto Núñez Feijoo "isn't president because he doesn't want to be." Two years later, the laughter has become grimaces, and the question isn't who wants to be president, but who can be. The PP leader doesn't have the votes for a vote of no confidence , and Sánchez knows he's only president because the electoral button is in his hands, and everyone who voted for him in the investiture election is convinced that if he pushes it, they'll lose. The judicial and political agony to which the Cerdán case will subject the PSOE and the government clashes with the certainty of pollsters that the ballot boxes would give the government to the right.

Resisting is the motto. A former Catalan minister recalls that the 8th term of the Parliament lasted four years and one month because José Montilla's tripartite coalition partners knew midway through their term that they were going to lose and squeezed the deadline to the maximum. This precedent does not bode well for the Socialists. In the 2010 elections, the PSC began its journey through the wilderness until 2021.

The changes in the executive branch to bury the Cerdán era seek to revive a wounded party. So far, the PSOE has been safe from judicial investigation, a red line for its members. However, if the Civil Guard's account is accurate, it's clear to everyone that the "toxic triangle" supposedly formed by Cerdán, José Luis Ábalos, and Koldo García must have had the necessary collaboration of the administrations awarded the works, starting with the Ministry of Transport.

With Sánchez playing his last cards, the Catalan independence movement is extremely cautious, awaiting the PSOE federal committee and the appearance of the president. Junts awaits its new interlocutor while continuing its meetings with José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in Switzerland. Its internal bodies have expressed their perplexity over the situation, and the usual blanket of silence has been reinforced. This week, for example, at a regional meeting, Miriam Nogueras only referred to the Cerdán case when questioned by those present. The post-Convergents intend to maintain their vindictive profile , now calling for the creation of the Catalan Council of Justice, taking advantage of the Bolaños Law. The demand is twenty years old. Francisco Caamaño and Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba opposed including it in the Statute of Autonomy. "Don't worry, we'll do it!" they insisted to CiU. It was finally included but was stripped of its functions by the grace of the Constitutional Court ruling. Now, Junts wants the Consell to appoint the president of the High Court of Justice of Catalonia and the presidents of the provincial courts.

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For its part, ERC is trying to balance the demand for regeneration with its financing negotiations with the Ministry of Finance to fulfill its agreements for Salvador Illa's investiture. Illa is not only Sánchez's confidant; he has turned Catalonia into a Socialist electoral bastion. One of the masterminds of the Illa effect was Francisco Salazar , now promoted to deputy secretary of organization of the PSOE and responsible for electoral analysis and action.

Feijóo is betting everything on anti-Sanchismo; Tellado is the antidote to any alliance.

The mandates of Sánchez and Illa are intertwined. Without the Moncloa, the Catalan legislature could become a wasteland. That umbilical cord is currently keeping the transfer of commuter trains and the negotiations for special financing alive. Dependencies are multiplying in the Basque and Navarrese governments, and the PP is using these forces to attack the PNV and attempt to revive the case of the defective masks to undermine Illa.

The superpowers Feijóo grants Miguel Tellado as PP secretary general confirm that he is facing his last chance. The alternative that aims to be centrist is drowned out by the anti-Sanchismo of the appointments. Tellado's approach is the antidote to any hint of a pact with the Basque nationalists and Junts, even though they agree on some votes in Congress. Can Feijóo be president without these alliances? That's the bet. Get there and then make a virtue out of necessity.