Narrow world

Straits and canals tie the world together. They connect it, strain it, and confront it. In every strait, a potential war is brewing. It has already begun in Bab el-Mandeb. The Peninsulas newsletter has been focusing on canals and straits, and today we'd like to take a global look at the planet's critical points. We'll start with a gulf, a strait with no exit.

The Gulf of Finland. The Baltic Sea juts into Russia through the narrow Gulf of Finland. Helsinki, Tallinn, and St. Petersburg form a hazy and uncertain triangle, with the immense Lake Ladoga behind Peter the Great's city. This triangle is now under high tension. Russia is challenging NATO air forces with seemingly out-of-control drones and adventurous fighter jets. A war of nerves. It may be the response to the new sanctions against Russia being prepared by the European Union, and it could be something worse: the search for an incendiary spark to unite Russian society in the face of progressive economic erosion and the sluggish recruitment of volunteer soldiers for the chilling slaughter taking place in the war in Ukraine. One million Russian casualties in just over two years. A carnage that no democratic country would tolerate.

The Turkish Straits. The Dardanelles and the Bosphorus are the double gateway to the Black Sea. The Turkish Straits lead to the warm sea always coveted by Russia. From the Gulf of Finland to the Crimean Peninsula. This geographic arc explains everything, or almost everything. This arc draws a telluric line separating East and West on the great Eurasian continental shelf. The fight for control of that line is underway again. Turkey watches. The maritime space delimited by the Dardanelles and the Bosphorus is called the Sea of ​​Marmara and is under exclusive Turkish control. It is the Byzantine conduit through which approximately 5% of global oil trade circulates, from the Caspian region, which, in addition to Russia, includes Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Iran, and Azerbaijan. The Turkish Straits are an outlet for Central Asian energy capital.

Turkey, a NATO member country with a renewed imperial vocation, is rediscovering the sea. Mavi Vatan . The Blue Homeland. Inspired in 2005 by Admiral Cem Gürdeniz, this strategic approach seeks to reaffirm Turkey's positions in the Aegean Sea, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Black Sea. And Spain is one of its strongholds, much to the annoyance of Greece. Miguel de Cervantes, who lost an arm in the Battle of Lepanto, would be surprised to know that five centuries later, Spain is manufacturing galleys for the Turks. Turkey is today one of the major clients of Spanish military shipyards, and this collaboration may extend to other areas of the military industry as a result of the Spanish government's decision to stop purchasing weapons from Israel.

Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb. The opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 was an extraordinary event . The greatest engineering feat of the 19th century. Suez was promoted by the French, purchased by the British, and nationalized by the Egyptians in 1956, with the indirect support of the United States. The moment Washington vetoed the Franco-British reconquest of Suez, the British Empire, exhausted since the end of World War II, finally died. Why this veto? The Americans did not want Egypt to end up in the orbit of the Soviet Union. The United States then decided that the young State of Israel would be its main support in the region. From here begins a long and extremely complex story, the final chapter of which is the massacre in Gaza.

A Greater Israel is now emerging—a greater Sparta, Benjamin Netanyahu has just said—that in the near future could form a consortium with Saudi Arabia, creating a regional pivot capable of disciplining the entire Middle East, including Iran, with the resulting control of the major shipping route between Europe and the Far East. The transformation of the Gaza Strip into a luxury tourist resort would symbolically crown the new empire, and the surviving Palestinians would end up deported to South Sudan or Somalia, the outskirts of East Africa. That is the ultimate program. A brutal program. Seventy thousand people massacred, perhaps more. A wave of indignation is sweeping the world.

Hamas's savagery on October 7, 2023, was intended to delay the understanding between Israel and Saudi Arabia, given the more than predictable Israeli military retaliation. This has been much greater than they expected. The Israeli retaliation has consisted of a full-scale regional war without consideration. Hamas lies under the rubble along with thousands upon thousands of civilian casualties. Hezbollah has been defeated in Lebanon. Syria, disciplined. Iran's nuclear facilities bombed. And the Yemeni prime minister assassinated as punishment for the attempted blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Suez Canal has lost almost half of its usual traffic in the last two years, with the consequent reduction in the tariffs charged by Egypt. Some naval traffic has been diverted around the Cape of Good Hope (South Africa), but there is evidence that large Chinese shipping companies have been able to transit the Red Sea without any problems. A moment of tense waiting. Western companies are risk-averse, and rising insurance prices are helping to maintain the Route of Good Hope, the ancient route of Portuguese sailors.

The Strait of Hormuz. Hormuz is the gateway connecting the Indian Ocean to the Persian Gulf, through which between 15% and 18% of the world's oil production moves. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman share the shores of the gulf through which Sinbad the Sailor sailed. The Emirate of Qatar is also one of the world's leading producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Blocking Hormuz would cause a severe collapse of the global economy, with particular repercussions in Europe and the Far East. A total blockade of this route has never occurred, but since the 1980s, ever since Iran broke with the West, this threat has appeared at every critical moment. A few months ago, Iran threatened to close Hormuz if Israel and the United States bombed its nuclear facilities. The United States attacked, and Hormuz did not close. Iran avoided war to protect its internal order.

Strait of Malacca. “Malacca is the center of the world,” used to say Josep Piqué, former Minister of Foreign Affairs, a man well versed in geopolitics . Thirty percent of global maritime trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, between the Malaysian peninsula and the island of Sumatra (Indonesia). Between 25 and 30 percent of the world's oil consumption passes through this long canal. About 258 ships a day. Malacca is within the United States' sphere of influence. The US Navy does not patrol its waters, but the Indo-Pacific Command, based in Hawaii, constantly monitors the world's largest strait. If Malacca were to close, the Chinese economy could collapse, which is why Beijing has been looking for alternative routes for years. The Arctic is the latest of them.

Taiwan Strait. World War III could begin in the Taiwan Strait, if it doesn't begin first in the Baltic Sea. The People's Republic of China wants to celebrate the centenary of the 1949 communist revolution with full territorial integrity. The island of Taiwan (Formosa on Portuguese maps) was the last refuge of the Nationalist troops when they were defeated on the mainland by the People's Liberation Army. The demand for Taiwan is a factor of national cohesion increasingly venerated by Xi Jinping, President of the Republic, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, and Chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission. China now has the naval forces necessary for an invasion, and military maneuvers around the island are becoming more frequent. A war of nerves. Since Taiwan is under the protection of the United States, an invasion of the island would be considered a casus belli by Washington, testing the balance of power between the two powers in the Pacific. Would the same tension exist if Taiwan were not a major semiconductor production center? TSMC, the world's leading semiconductor company, is located on the island.

Bering Strait. Last Saturday, September 20, the Chinese merchant ship Istanbul Bridge inaugurated a new trade route across the Arctic Ocean, aiming to connect the ports of Qingdao and Shanghai with Felixstowe (United Kingdom), Rotterdam (Netherlands), Hamburg (Germany), and Gdansk (Poland). Fifty days via the Suez Canal route, eighteen days via the Arctic route, navigable for about six months a year, until mid-autumn. The first regular route between China and Europe across the Arctic was born, called the China-Europe Arctic Express. The Istanbul Bridge , a medium-sized container ship, is currently heading towards the Bering Strait, a stretch of sea located at the eastern end of Siberia, which separates Russia from Alaska, a territory on the American continent that Tsar Alexander II sold to the United States in 1867. The Bering Strait owes its name to Vitus Bering, a Danish explorer in the service of the Russian Empire who crossed it in 1728. China and Russia are consolidating a new naval route of great importance, which is why the United States will continue to squeeze Canada and Denmark (Greenland) to gain a presence in the Arctic.

Panama Canal. Now that we've reached the Atlantic, let's head down toward the Panama Canal, the United States wants to regain full control of it. Initially conceived by Ferdinand de Lesseps, the French engineer who built the Suez Canal, the project was completed by the United States in 1914. " Let's make America great again ." The first to utter this slogan was Republican politician Ronald Reagan in 1980, criticizing the Carter-Torrijos Treaty, which returned sovereignty of the canal to Panama. This treaty was a high point of the "soft power" doctrine in the United States. It's better to seduce than to impose by force. Or rather, to seduce and impose by force when necessary. The Trump presidency has canceled soft power and is also tightening the screws on Panama, a country that maintains a long-standing relationship of friendship with China. The investment fund BlackRock and the Italian-Swiss shipping company MSC have purchased the concession for the ports of Balboa and Cristobal, located at either end of the canal, from the Hong Kong-based Chinese shipping company Hutchinson. These ports do not manage the canal, which is in the hands of a Panamanian state agency, but Chinese ownership of them had high political significance. Washington is now applying pressure because US Navy ships can cross the canal for free. Sending forces to the Pacific without paying. Such a measure would violate the neutrality of the Panama Canal (an annex to the Carter-Torrijos Agreement), signed by 40 countries worldwide, not including China.

Strait of Gibraltar. We conclude our journey in what is surely the most peaceful of all those we have mentioned. The strait that separates Europe and Africa, one of the most dramatic borders in the world. Gibraltar. The English flag still flies on the Rock. The Spanish flag presides over the North African cities of Ceuta and Melilla. In Ceuta, the first flag was the ensign of the King and Queen of Portugal. Ceuta and Melilla are now European Union territories. And Gibraltar remains within the European Union's Schengen Area, following the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the EU. This is the balancing act that the Spanish and British governments, along with the European Commission, have just agreed upon after lengthy negotiations. The British Admiralty will continue to have military control of the gateway between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, but the fence separating Gibraltar from the Spanish municipality of Línea de la Concepción will be opened. Free movement of people and goods. A port between two seas (Algeciras) and an international airport (Gibraltar). More competition with the other side, where Morocco has already made the port of Tangier Med the leader in container traffic in the Mediterranean. They are now building another commercial port in Nador, near Melilla. Morocco wants to surround Ceuta and Melilla with a prosperous commercial network. In the Strait of Gibraltar, the battle, for now, is commercial. And young orcas are attacking sailboats. They tear off the rudder and play with it.