From the fervor of independence to the rise of the extreme right
Catalonia celebrates a Diada today that bears little resemblance to the mass demonstrations of previous years. Almost eight years ago, the independence movement was at its peak and its rise seemed unstoppable. Today, the movement with the greatest momentum is the far right. How can it happen that in such a short time, such drastic changes in the political preferences of Catalans have occurred?
The independence movement lacks the mobilizing force on this Diada to organize some of the most impressive demonstrations in Europe in the last two decades. Support for secession among Catalan society had historically hovered around 30%, but in October 2017, it reached 49.4%, according to polls by the Centre for Opinion Studies (CEO) , the Catalan CIS (Center for Opinion Studies), and other private surveys.
For the past five years, the opposite has been happening. The opposition to independence has prevailed. Now, support for secession is around 40%. The movement once led by the ANC attributes the decline to "repression" and political parties, but in reality, it is Catalan society as a whole that decides where it is headed, influenced by political and economic currents that go beyond the Catalan environment. A 40% vote also means that the option of independence took a leap forward with the Catalan independence process , which has now been diminished, but has taken root more strongly than before. It reflects a certain latent tendency.
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The surge in independence coincided with and was partly due to the great recession unleashed in 2008 and its harsh social effects. The popular reaction at that time shifted to the left in Spain. This marked the emergence of Podemos and, in the Catalan case, of the Comuneros (Commons), which won the mayoralty of Barcelona in 2015. While in the rest of Spain the economic malaise and the crisis of confidence in institutions (challenge to the so-called '78 regime) were channeled through Podemos, in Catalonia, where the left-right axis coexists with national sentiment, the independence movement predominated. But it was a left-leaning independence movement.
So far to the left that the center-right (Convergència) renounced its acronym and its leadership to remain in the center of power. It was also in 2015 that a united independence list headed by Raül Romeva, who came from ICV and later from ERC, ran in the Catalan elections. Beyond the goal of secession, laws with a clear leftist bias were passed in Parliament. Some were later replicated by the government of Pedro Sánchez and Pablo Iglesias. The language of politicians who previously espoused center-right positions, such as Convergència, also became mimicked to accommodate the hegemony of the left.
In just eight years, the picture of Catalonia has changed radically. Social unrest may not be as pronounced as at the height of the crisis, although ill will persists due to the low purchasing power of salaries, the long lines in public healthcare, and, above all, housing. All of this occurs in a context of enormous discredit for institutions. But the quick solution to these and other problems is no longer sought in independence, but in a shift to the right.
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It's the same shift taking place across half the developed world, with the rejection of immigration as its main focus. In the Catalan case, we must add, once again, the particular identity, whereby not only the Spanish far-right party, Vox, is represented in the Parliament, but also the pro-independence party, Aliança Catalana (AC), which all polls indicate is on the rise. AC is a party that thus combines all the frustrations, both social and those stemming from the fiasco of the Catalan independence process . AC defines itself against foreigners and all things Spanish, with a strong Catholic identification in the figure of its leader, Sílvia Orriols, with an irreverent language that penetrates quickly and easily, and a rebellious rhetoric on the rise.
The independence movement of ERC and Junts had a disruptive component to the status quo, placing the source of all problems in the supposed inability of the Spanish state to modernize and accept plurinationality. But at the same time, these two parties sought to give the movement a veneer of institutionality to make it credible among broader sectors fearful of radical change. The post-Convergents guaranteed "the revolution of smiles," while flirting with the Comuns party to support the referendum and reaching an understanding with an anti-capitalist party like the CUP.
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The opposition vote persists, but the current outlook is different. Junts exhibits an ideological distance that is the polar opposite of the Comuns in Catalonia or Sumar and Podemos in Madrid. It has resumed its traditional role as a lobbyist in Congress for the interests of Catalan economic sectors. It has revived the banner of tax cuts, which it shelved for a time, and has placed immigration among its priorities. The ability of this force and its current successors to adapt to the environment is indicative of their deep roots in Catalan society.
For the first time in regional history, the Parliament has not had a nationalist/independence majority for a year. Nor a right-wing one. At least for now. Just as the desire for secession united parties of different ideologies, the convergence of right-wing and far-right parties, which has led to joint governments in other regions and could benefit the central government, does not seem feasible in the Catalan case. It is unlikely that the PP, Junts, Vox, and AC will reach an agreement. In Catalonia, the sense of territorial belonging still weighs more than that of class. But the secession movement, which once dressed up as a leftist rhetoric, is now opting for the right's garb.
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