What price increases are coming in 2026?

In 2026, the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) is planning to increase taxes on soft drinks and cigarettes, which will increase the price of these products. Here are the details:

As part of the 2026 Economic Package, the government of President Claudia Sheinbaum proposed raising taxes on products that are harmful to health and that affect the economy of families, known as vice and anti-obesity taxes , applicable to soft drinks, cigarettes, gambling, and video games with violent content .

The package that was delivered last night to the Congress of the Union by the head of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), Édgar Amador Zamora, contains A Tax Miscellany with changes to the Special Tax on Production and Services Law (IEPS) .

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For the consumption of flavored beverages, it is proposed to increase the IEPS rate to 3.0818 pesos per liter of product. , including those containing any type of non-caloric sugars.

The current rate for soft drinks and other flavored beverages and juices is one peso per liter .

While, For manufactured tobacco, it is proposed to increase the ad valorem rate, which is calculated on a percentage of the total product, from 160% to 200%, as well as to establish a gradual increase in the specific quota until 2030. .

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A transition period between fiscal years 2026 and 2029 is being considered by deputies and senators to incorporate new products containing nicotine , known as "nicotine pouches." For hand-rolled tobacco or cigars, the ad valorem tax is proposed to be raised to 32 percent.

Additionally, It is proposed to establish a special ad valorem tax of 8% on the provision of digital video game services with violent content. .

It is also proposed to increase the IEPS from 30% to 50% on the total amount of bets or the amount actually received. .

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The document states that these are measures with extra-fiscal purposes, that is, they are aimed at reducing the consumption of goods and products that generate negative effects on the health of the population .

During the presentation event, Ricardo Monreal, Morena's coordinator in the Chamber of Deputies, acknowledged that, as a result of the proposal to increase the IEPS (Important Tax on Cigarettes and Soft Drinks), lobbyists will begin arriving at the San Lázaro legislative hall .

However, the legislator assured that the parliamentary majority "will hold firm." With this, the package will have the full support of the legislature.

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"Given the current situation, we must start at the legislature's level to act in a manner consistent with the current and expected situation in the country, to continue including social policy as a priority and implementing public policies that benefit the population," Monreal stated.

For her part, Representative Kenia López, president of the Board of Directors, stated that analyzing the Economic Package is one of the most important responsibilities of the representatives, and she will ensure that this responsibility is carried out "in the most correct and ethical manner."

This type of tax is used as a public policy tool to guide behavior, not for revenue purposes, explained tax expert Jesús Rodríguez. "They are intended to discourage consumption, which is harmful to health," he stated.

Income on the rise

According to the fiscal package, The federal government expects to collect a total of 761.5 billion pesos from the IEPS. .

This would bring the total revenue collected from all the various taxes in the tax system to 5.8 trillion pesos, a real increase of 5.7% compared to the estimated closing price for 2025 , according to the proposed Federal Revenue Law for the 2026 fiscal year.

This is mainly due to the increase in revenue from imports, with a real variation of 40.7% and an expected amount of 254.8 billion pesos.

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There will also be a 2.5% increase for collection through Income Tax (ISR) and a 3.6% increase through Value Added Tax (VAT). .

Tax revenues are estimated to be 357.1 billion pesos higher than planned in this year's Revenue Law, representing a 6.5% increase .

There is no consideration of giving fiscal stimulus to gasoline and diesel consumers. , since excluding the IEPS (Excess Tax on Fuels), tax revenues will reach 5.3 trillion pesos, which would imply an annual real growth of 5.8%, reflecting various fiscal measures planned for next year.

Financial estimates

The General Economic Policy Criteria propose growth in the range of 1.8% to 2.8% with inflation of 3% and an exchange rate of 18.90 pesos per dollar at the end of 2026 and an oil price of 54.9 dollars per barrel .

In the presentation, Edgar Amador highlighted that, in 2026, resources equivalent to 3% of GDP are planned for social programs that will directly benefit nearly 82% of the country's families .

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"The Women's Welfare Pension stands out, providing universal coverage to women aged 60 to 64, and is in addition to the pension for senior citizens," the secretary emphasized.

For Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), a budget of 517 billion pesos is proposed, 7.7% more than what was approved for 2025 , to which transfers of up to 263 billion would be added.

Macroeconomic framework

The 2026 Economic Package will be debated and approved by deputies and senators.

• GDP Growth : The document released by the Treasury projects economic expansion in the range of 1.8% to 2.8% for next year.
• Inflation : The current administration's public finance estimates assume an inflation rate of 3% by the end of 2026.
• Interest Rate : The Ministry of Finance anticipates that the Bank of Mexico's benchmark rate will be 6% by the end of next year.
• Oil price : The government forecasts that the average price per barrel of Mexican oil for export in 2026 will be $54.90.

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