The Mexican government projects growth of 2.3% for 2026 and a fiscal deficit of 4.1% of GDP.
MEXICO CITY.- Yesterday, Monday, the Government of Mexico delivered to the Chamber of Deputies the economic package for 2026 , the second of President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo , in which she expects a growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) within a range of between 1.8% and 2.3%, above the projections of the main international organizations.
"This package is being presented in a complex international environment, marked by trade and geopolitical tensions that have put all economies to the test," said the head of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP), Edgar Amador Zamora , upon delivering the document at 10:30 p.m. (04:30 GMT Tuesday), less than two hours before the legal deadline (00:00 September 9, 06:00 GMT) at the headquarters of Congress in Mexico City.
The Treasury had previously forecast growth of between 1.5% and 2.5%, but is now raising its expectations amid improved economic performance in the first half of the year and a deteriorating outlook for a possible recession in 2025.
The 2026 Economic Package deepens the shift toward economic transformation, with a humanistic policy that has yielded tangible results for citizens.
🎙️Secretary @Edgar_Amador_Z pic.twitter.com/rUQ3mwuG1q
"Mexico, however, has shown strength. During the first half of 2025, GDP growth exceeded the expectations of national and international analysts, reflecting solid fundamentals," he added.
According to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), Mexican GDP registered a quarterly increase of 0.7% and a year-over-year increase of 1.2%, accumulating a growth of 0.9% in the first half of 2025, which established a baseline for the new official calculations.
The government's projections contrast with estimates from multilateral organizations, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which forecasts that the Mexican economy will grow 1.4% in 2026.
Meanwhile, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) puts it at 1.1%, as does the World Bank , while the Bank of Mexico expects a 0.9% increase and the domestic market a 1.4% increase.
"For 2025 and 2026, we will maintain the path of fiscal consolidation, mindful that we face a complex international environment that demands a balance between fiscal responsibility and the promotion of economic activity," Amador recalled, noting that the government remains confident in the strength of domestic indicators, such as foreign direct investment, employment, and domestic consumption.
#President'sMorning | 📢🇲🇽 During the presentation of the 2026 Economic Package, Claudia Sheinbaum reaffirmed her commitment to fiscal discipline. She seeks the lowest possible deficit, even in the face of PEMEX's debt maturities in 2026 and 2027. 💼⛽
He also exposed Peña Nieto. pic.twitter.com/KomBzgnJrZ
— Juncal Solano (@juncalssolano) September 8, 2025
The 2026 economic package is the second that President Claudia Sheinbaum has sent to Congress since taking office on October 1, 2024.
The plan forecasts a fiscal deficit of 4.1% of GDP , slightly lower than its previous forecast of 4.3%.
The Economic Package , which includes the budget for fiscal year 2026 , contemplates spending aimed at social programs, infrastructure, and energy transition.
President Claudia Sheinbaum emphasized in her morning press conference that the new budget seeks "the lowest possible deficit " and "greater fiscal consolidation"; although she noted that her administration will continue supporting the state-owned oil company Petróleos Mexicanos toward its financial recovery by 2027 .
"And we will continue renegotiating this debt to support public finances," he said from the National Palace.
Deputies must analyze and approve the package—which includes the expenditure budget, the Revenue Law, the General Economic Policy Criteria, and the Annual Financing Plan—before November 15.
The delivery of this economic package was delayed for more than five hours, prompting Representative Ricardo Monreal to apologize to the citizens who had been waiting since 6:00 PM (00:00 GMT) for the representatives to receive the package.
On the other hand, the company Grupo Estrategia Política , an organization that offers a portfolio of solutions in strategic information, political analysis and intelligence, public affairs and specialized solutions, presented its analysis of the 2026 economic package that the Government of Mexico delivered to the Chamber of Deputies yesterday and which we offer below:
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