The Mayan Train: a $29 billion financial abyss

The Maya Train, a key project for Yucatán, is operating in a financial abyss. Reports reveal that in 2024 it received nearly 30 billion pesos in government subsidies, but only generated 276 million pesos from its operations, sparking an intense debate about its real viability.

The Maya Train, the federal government's most ambitious and controversial infrastructure project and a key element for the future of Yucatán, is under intense financial scrutiny. Hard data and analysis from journalistic and economic sources reveal a stark disparity between the massive subsidies it receives and the modest revenue it generates, raising serious doubts about its long-term economic sustainability.

The project, defended as an engine of development for the southeast, operates under two realities that clash head-on: that of political promotion and the cold, hard numbers of its financial statements.

The scale of the financial imbalance is overwhelming. An analysis based on official figures, reported by journalist Rubén Aguilar, details that during 2024, the operation of the Mayan Train performed as follows:

• Government Subsidies Received: $29,912,000,000 pesos.
• Own-Generated Revenue: $276,000,000 pesos. These numbers indicate that for every peso the Maya Train generated on its own (ticket sales, services, etc.), the government had to inject approximately 108 pesos in subsidies to keep it running.

  Another report from El Financiero corroborates this trend, noting that the train generated only 2% of its total revenue, relying on subsidies to cover the remaining 98% of its operating costs, and that it operated in the red for 11 of its first 12 months.

The Financial Reality of the Mayan Train (2024)

In stark contrast to the harsh financial reality, the train's administration, run by the Army, has launched aggressive campaigns to encourage its use. A clear example was the promotion launched between May and June, where a return ticket was given away with the purchase of a one-way economy class ticket.

This strategy seeks to increase passenger numbers and popularize the service, under the official narrative that the Maya Train should not be viewed as a private enterprise, but rather as a long-term social investment aimed at bringing development and well-being to a historically neglected region.

The situation has divided opinions. On the one hand, proponents of the project argue that public infrastructure projects of this magnitude, such as the metro in large cities, are rarely profitable in and of themselves, and their true value lies in the indirect economic benefits they generate: tourism, employment, and regional development.

"The deficit is abysmal. There's no chance it will be profitable as a passenger transport system, and there are doubts it will be as profitable as a freight transport system." – Direct quote from Rubén Aguilar's analysis, which summarizes the critical position.

On the other hand, economic analysts and organizations such as the Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO) have warned about the project's cost overrun of more than 228% and the lack of robust feasibility studies to justify such a massive investment. The concern is that it could become a permanent burden on public finances, diverting resources that could be used in other priority areas.

For Yucatán, a state that hosts some of the most important sections and stations, the future of the Maya Train is crucial. The question remains whether the promise of development will eventually justify the enormous cost taxpayers are currently paying.