The body attempts to pass the cursed exam for its predecessors in Economics

This Monday, Carlos Cuerpo faces an exam that his immediate predecessors , opponents like him, failed. The Spanish Minister of Economy wants to storm the Eurogroup presidency, as Nadia Calviño attempted in 2020 and Luis de Guindos in 2015. The test is very difficult. The favorite to preside over the body that brings together the eurozone's finance ministers is its current tenant, the Irishman Pascal Donohoe. So much so that several European sources have been surprised by the Spaniard's decision. "I thought I was tied for Donohoe for a long time," one of them notes. And, in addition, there is a third candidate, the Lithuanian Rimantas Sadzius: a firm favorite at this monthly meeting of finance ministers, having held this position several times in his country.

Cuerpo is aware of the extreme difficulty. Although the Ministry of Economy speaks of "a positive reception for the candidacy that allows for optimism" and relies on a secret ballot. By taking this step forward, the Spaniard wants his candidacy to at least make visible his dissatisfaction with the way things have been handled in recent years. This is also suspected by the team of a Eurogroup participant, who recalls that Spain signed a document, reported by EL PAÍS , along with Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands, demanding changes in the working method and asking for greater determination. "The Eurogroup is seeking relevance, and this candidacy could create a stir in how it operates," notes this source, who, despite this, doesn't give the Spaniard many options.

"A former commissioner used to say that the Eurogroup has become a think tank ," notes one of the sources consulted, illustrating how an organization that was key during the financial crisis of the last decade has been losing influence. But this is not solely Donohoe's responsibility. His record is poor, but it must be remembered that when he tried to move forward with banking union, he ran into a lack of political will among the Member States.

Cuerpo explained a little over a month ago at an academic event in Badajoz , his hometown, that when he first took the civil service exam to become a State Sales Technician in 2007, he had prepared 32 of the 33 subjects required for the fourth phase of the exam "due to lack of time." He was unlucky and got that subject. He passed the following year. He's called it "the 3% rule" ever since. Bad luck, that is.

This time, according to the sources consulted and the widespread opinion in Brussels, that percentage is almost reversed. Perhaps a 97% bias against him is simply bad luck, because several of those sources admit that he has the best profile and is highly respected in the European institutions, where he successfully negotiated the new fiscal rules during the Spanish presidency of the EU Council in the second half of 2023. But everything else is not in his favor.

Being Spanish, this time, won't help him. And not just because of the current fragility of the government. There are other, more structural circumstances that would also hinder any Spanish candidate, regardless of their political affiliation. The first of these is, without a doubt, the size of the country. That principle, which played a decisive role in the case of Nadia Calviño when she lost to Donohoe despite having the support of the major parties, remains in force today. Analysts and sources repeatedly emphasize that the presidency is decided in a vote based on the one country, one vote rule: Germany and Malta are equal. And that is important when policies to delve into issues such as banking union or capital markets are discussed in this forum.

Moving in this direction, as suggested in the Draghi and Letta reports, would be important for companies and banks to gain competitiveness. But it could also mean that smaller states would lose their mid-sized stock exchanges and financial markets, or that tax harmonization would be considered, something they don't want to hear about in Ireland, Luxembourg, or Estonia.

It doesn't help that there are quite a few Spaniards in important economic positions, a balance that everyone is keeping an eye on. Calviño now presides over the European Investment Bank; José Manuel Campa heads the European Banking Authority; Guindos is Vice President of the European Central Bank; and Teresa Ribera is Vice President of the Commission and in charge of a powerful portfolio like Competition. However, a Eurogroup expert downplays this factor because "Guindos has less than a year left at the ECB, and the EBA is not a body with great institutional weight."

As on previous occasions and in other races for other EU posts, most capitals have not publicly supported anyone. Cuerpo is supported by Slovak Finance Minister Klemen Bostjancic. His colleagues who signed the document calling for changes with him have not said anything, at least openly. Germany, France, Italy, and the Netherlands have not yet made up their minds. However, the seven ministers belonging to the European People's Party (Greece, Ireland, Belgium, Latvia, Croatia, Luxembourg, and Portugal) have explicitly supported Donohoe. On the other hand, the Social Democratic party is divided, as the Lithuanian Sadzius also forms part of a Socialist government.

And the structural circumstances are compounded by those currently surrounding the Spanish government. Its extreme fragility—besieged by the corruption of the Koldo case and its parliamentary weakness—counters against the body. As a source who has participated in this forum for years points out, to preside over it, it is mandatory to be a minister, and if one government is unstable, the others obviously take it into account.

In the countries bordering Russia, there is also considerable misunderstanding regarding Spain's frugal stance on defense spending. A diplomatic source from one of those countries emphasizes this. He doesn't clarify how his country will vote, but he does make it clear that this could influence its decision.