The bet to survive uncertainty: fixed income, gold and sovereign bonds

The markets, as appears to be the trend for at least the first part of the year, are once again looking with concern at US trade policy . Although some tariff easing has begun, the noise surrounding these measures continues to generate doubts and uncertainty for both companies and investors.

We already see this in the data, as Francisco Simón , European Head of Asset Allocation Strategy at Santander Asset Management , reminds us: "Global growth is beginning to show signs of moderating. The United States, for now, is holding its own with an economy that maintains its momentum, thanks to a still-robust labor market and reasonable levels of confidence." However, "cracks are beginning to appear, and the most leading indicators suggest that the situation could become more complicated."

This week we also learned of the Federal Reserve 's decision to maintain interest rates. "Their message reflects the current situation: a great deal of uncertainty and a lack of clarity about the real impact of tariffs, especially on prices," he notes. The Fed has insisted on "the need to keep inflation expectations under control, also recognizing that a worsening environment could quickly affect the strength of the labor market."

The outlook is one of "high uncertainty," he adds, "with risks of lower growth and, on the inflation front, tensions in the United States and more contained inflation in other regions of the world." In this context, "our strategy is based on caution and the search for protection against potential episodes of volatility." Therefore, "we prefer fixed income to equities, with particular attention to sovereign bonds and, within credit, to the highest-quality issuers." In equities, meanwhile, "Europe seems more attractive to us than the United States or emerging countries, both in terms of valuation and cycle expectations."

In any case, and without closing the door definitively on any type of asset, "we also see opportunities in currencies. Right now, the euro and the Japanese yen provide us with security in an environment of high volatility focused on the United States. And we remain positive on gold, an asset that has historically demonstrated its ability to provide stability in uncertain environments."

The strategy is based on caution and the search for protection against possible episodes of volatility.

The context, as we see, is as uncertain as it is complex. Looking ahead, "we will continue to closely monitor the evolution of trade negotiations , confidence and activity data, and of course, the trajectory of inflation, which will be key to understanding the direction of monetary policy and, with it, the markets," he notes.

And as always, we can't end without reminding you that, "in times like these, diversification and professional risk management are the best tools for protecting investments," he concludes.

The markets, as appears to be the trend for at least the first part of the year, are once again looking with concern at US trade policy . Although some tariff easing has begun, the noise surrounding these measures continues to generate doubts and uncertainty for both companies and investors.