Spanish companies expect a 10% drop in their exports.

The Spanish economy has already entered the new era of trade marked by US President Donald Trump's tariff war. While the new 15% tariffs on trade with the North American giant will have a limited direct impact, as that market only represents 5% of total exports (approximately $18.179 billion), the ripple effect will have indirect effects due to the impact all EU markets will receive.

The trade war launched by the Trump administration in April saw its first victims be the steel industry, which is hit with a 50% tariff, and the automotive industry, with an announced tariff of 27.5% that will ultimately be 15%. Since yesterday, the US has also imposed a general 15% tariff on key sectors for the Spanish economy, such as the agri-food and chemical industries. Furthermore, this scenario could worsen because there are uncertainties surrounding many other industries. This is the case with the pharmaceutical industry (which Trump has threatened with tariffs of up to 250%), semiconductors, and aeronautics, all of which are holding their breath.

The situation is causing despair for Spanish companies, but the only strategy for now is to accept it with resignation. The Spanish employers' association CEOE issued a harsh statement last week criticizing the tariff agreement reached between the European Union and the United States. The organization, chaired by Antonio Garamendi, expressed "absolute rejection" of the pact and lamented that the negotiations were marked by "the pressure generated by the repeated announcements of tariff increases by the Trump administration."

The most exposed sectors are capital goods, semi-manufactured goods, and wine, oil and ham.

The Spanish Chamber of Commerce estimates that the new generalized 15% tariff will cause a 10.1% drop in Spanish exports to that country, representing an impact of €1.841 billion. However, the impact could be greater due to indirect effects, reaching up to 13.1% (€2.365 billion). The organization notes that the sectors with the greatest exposure to the American market are capital goods, semi-manufactured goods, and some agri-food products (oil, wine, ham, etc.).

The chemical industry association, Feique, warns that the impact will be more severe on raw materials than on more specialized products, due to their greater exposure to international competition. However, the sector has some products that have managed to avoid the tariff increase. In 2024, the sector exported US$59.166 billion, of which US$3.505 billion went to the United States (6% of the total), its fifth-largest market.

The Spanish Association of Automobile and Truck Manufacturers (Anfac) maintains that these tariffs will not affect Spanish factories, as no vehicles were exported to the US in 2024 or so far in 2025. However, there are some direct impacts, such as the decision by Seat, the largest Spanish manufacturer, to enter the United States with its Cupra brand.

The US only represents 5% of total foreign sales, but the indirect impact will be much greater.

On the other hand, the Spanish Association of Automotive Suppliers (Sernauto) predicts significant consequences for the components sector, given its high level of internationalization and complex global supply chain. In 2024, direct component exports to the US reached 1.021 billion euros, representing 4% of the sector's total. However, the impact will be greater because components manufactured in Spain are integrated into vehicles assembled in third countries, which are also affected by the tax increases.

When the tariff agreement was announced, the Spanish Association of the Olive Oil Export Industry and Trade (Asoliva) called the pact "very bad news" and warned that this measure represents a "distortion" of the international market to the detriment of European markets, especially the Spanish one. For its part, the Spanish Wine Federation (FEV) warned that the agreement could hinder wine trade with Spain by up to 10% and called on the European Union to continue working to achieve full exemption.