Ninety days to turn the world of commerce upside down and go to the future of yesterday

Good morning, good afternoon, good evening. We finally have a direct link between the two largest economies on the planet. China was on the verge of a trade embargo by the United States.

History shows us that embargoes never end well when they become abrasive.

For now, the bureaucrats of both nations are finding a way to return home claiming victory. In practice, it seems to me that so far we've seen a copy of the fight between Saul Alvarez and Scull. One trying to attack, the other avoiding the hook, both leaving the ring for the time being without much damage, and without convincingly showing themselves as either victor or loser.

Global commerce is feeling reassured, as the “it could be worse” sentiment provides a sense of positivity, and stock markets reflect this strength.

After the intensity has eased, global trade assumes that things will have to be conducted amicably, even though putting the fine details of demands and concessions on paper is a process that simply won't happen, as evidenced by the first Trump administration.

China has all the time in the world; the American consumer decides on midterm elections soon, and that's where the switch can flip. Family pockets don't recognize long-term strategic paths. Today's economic pain won't be erased by the promise of a better tomorrow.

Economically, we understand that markets are feeling more complex, perhaps energy and metals are feeling more comfortable, but if the Chinese can remain industrious, their economy will not stop and the flow of usage will continue; however, there are no guarantees.

We don't know if we'll return to the Phase 1 agreement. It seems to me they'll try to avoid associating it with what had already happened so as not to align it with emptiness.

Agricultural commodities took a turn for the better, and soybeans performed very well with interest rate hikes at the Chicago trading floor.

In fact, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated its global supply and demand forecast, and we logically saw the integration of planting intentions published in March multiplied by theoretical yields to reveal a balance of use and stock, the difference of which expresses the amount of final inventories.

The bottom line is that the soybean balance sheet is tightening, corn is not as abundant, and wheat is simply sitting there in a pinch.

For now, climate issues do not pose a challenge for North American production. The climate-neutral baby shower still hasn't been decided yet, and given the neutrality, the idea will be to have rain and heat conducive to the proper development of summer crops.

Hopefully that will also be the case in Mexico, where the drought has hit hard.

Without rushing into analysis, it seems that the supply could be substantial if geopolitical agendas do not truly resolve to end the war in Ukraine, cool the simmering tensions in India and Pakistan, and adjust Iran to a collaborative agenda.

If the above works, the rest seems to fall into place, just like watermelons in the back of a truck that arranges them as it moves.

The North American agricultural cycle begins right here, right now. Sowing continues unabated, summer defines yields, international policy will either pause or accelerate consumption, and the outcome will inform the price story.

Are you in good hands?

In the world, trade took a break and with optimism it is thought that things could have been better, but we will have to wait to see what happens in the world's geopolitics in the short term.