Mexico, without self-sufficiency in corn and meat, two of the pillars of the national diet

▲ This year, Mexico has purchased 586,000 tons of white corn from the U.S. Pictured: corn being planted in Milpa Alta. Photo by Cristina Rodríguez

Braulio Carbajal

La Jornada Newspaper, Monday, July 21, 2025, p. 21

Mexico, one of the world's leading food producers, faces a paradox at the end of the first half of 2025: the lack of self-sufficiency in two pillars of the national diet, corn and meat, products consumed by more than 80 percent of the population, which has resulted in historic imports.

Data from Mexico's National Customs Agency (ANAM) indicate that after years of surpluses in foreign livestock trade, our country closed the semester with an unprecedented deficit in meat imports; meanwhile, corn purchases remain at unprecedented levels, with exponential increases in white corn.

Information compiled by the Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA) highlights that, in the first half of 2025, Mexico imported 12.3 million tons of corn, a record for a similar period, which also represented a 1.8 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

Thus, our country buys, primarily from the United States, about half of all the corn demanded by families and businesses, a grain that is entirely genetically modified, that is, transgenic.

Historically, almost all of the grain imported by Mexico is yellow; however, in 2025, purchases of white corn, the type used in the production of dough and tortillas, will have significantly increased.

So far this year, Mexico has purchased 586,000 tons of white corn from the United States, a record high that is 253 percent higher than the same period in 2024.

According to estimates from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, tortillas are a staple food for more than 90 percent of Mexican families. The institution also estimates that each person eats around 75 kilos of tortillas per year.

Another problem facing Mexico is its livestock sector. According to official data, in the first six months of the year, our country accumulated imports of $4.228 billion compared to exports of $1.489 billion, a trade deficit of $2.739 billion.

This situation reflects not a temporary imbalance, but rather a structural problem aggravated by the prolonged drought that has reduced livestock inventories; the closure of the U.S. border due to the detection of screwworms; diseases such as epidemic porcine diarrhea; and respiratory problems that affect domestic production , said Juan Carlos Anaya, director general of the GCMA.

Currently, Mexico imports 52 percent of the pork consumed by the population, a critical sign of dependence and productive vulnerability. In the first six months of the year, imports increased 13.6 percent in volume and 41 percent in value, with an average import price of $2.57 per kilogram.

In beef, imports increased 16.8 percent in volume, while in value they increased 14.6 percent. Meanwhile, chicken meat reported an increase of 4.5 percent in volume and 17 percent in value.

Julio Gutiérrez

La Jornada Newspaper, Monday, July 21, 2025, p. 22

Between January and May, banks operating in the country reported having created reserves for potential losses amounting to 84.445 billion pesos, 11.5 percent higher in real terms than the 72.509 billion pesos they had in the same period last year, according to the latest figures available from the National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV).

These are preventive estimates for credit risks, which are the reserves that banks set up to cover potential future losses in the event that borrowers fail to meet their payment obligations.

For a similar period, this is the highest amount reported since 2020, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, when these intermediaries reported holding reserves of 86.834 billion pesos.

The increased creation of reserves for potential losses occurs in an environment where the economy is growing less than last year and where demand for consumer loans (credit cards, personal financing, or payroll loans) is rising as people use them to cope with their declining income.

In May, according to official statistics from the CNBV, of the three segments into which bank credit is divided—business, consumer, and mortgage—the latter had the highest growth rate, with a jump of 9.2 percent in real terms compared to 2024.

So far in 2025, the reserves for potential losses created by banks have been steadily growing.

In January, the growth rate of preventive estimates was 16 percent; in February, 11.2 percent; in March, 11.3 percent; and in April, 10.4 percent.

As this occurs, default rates, measured by the non-performing loan index (IMOR), gradually begin to rise.

In May, the Imor (Income Ratio) for the total loan portfolio stood at 2.08 percent, representing an increase of 0.04 percentage points compared to the 2.04 percent reported in the same month of the previous year, according to official statistics.

Meanwhile, in consumer loans, this indicator closed the fifth month of the year at a level of 3 percent, which represented an increase of 0.04 points compared to the 2.96 percent reported a year earlier.

Seven of the eight systemically important banks, known as such because bankruptcy would jeopardize their stability, reported having built up reserves totaling 65.294 billion pesos, 11.4 percent higher than the figure reported between January and May of last year.

Clara Zepeda

La Jornada Newspaper, Monday, July 21, 2025, p. 22

Amid the dollar's weakness, pending greater clarity on the development of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policies, net speculative positions shifted against the Mexican currency and fell to levels seen at the beginning of May.

In the Chicago futures market, 50,100 net short contracts were registered, each worth 500,000 pesos, a level not seen since the week of April 25 to May 4.

The peso closed last week at 18.7312 per dollar spot , representing a weekly depreciation of 0.47 percent against the U.S. currency. Although the Mexican currency weakened during the week, given the strength of the dollar, there were sessions in which the dollar stumbled and the Mexican currency took advantage of the opportunity to gain ground.

Persistent uncertainty over the trade front continued to weigh on overall sentiment, which, combined with speculation about Donald Trump's possible dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, further weakened sentiment.

Although temporarily, the dollar weakened and Treasury bonds hit weekly lows as concerns about this front intensified.

Trump denied the rumors but maintained a sharply critical tone. Overall, the dollar posted a second week of gains, Banorte explained.

By the end of 2025, the exchange rate is estimated at 19.50 (the previous rate was 20.10 pesos per dollar).

By 2026, the peso is projected at 19.20 per dollar.

The weakness of the exchange rate has been combined with a general decline in global risk premiums. Given the asymmetry of threats, he does not foresee attractive long-term effects in the exchange rate, with the peso also showing some appreciation according to his fair value models.