Buenos Aires elections: The dollar that never sleeps brings calm to a key election Sunday for Javier Milei's government.

On a Sunday without traditional trading, the financial markets' attention turned to the crypto dollar, the only one that never sleeps and trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week. After midday, the main stablecoins—USDT and USDC—were trading at $1,388 and $1,383 respectively, with slight negative variations of 0.08% and 0.05% over the last 24 hours.

The stock price serves as a gauge of financial sentiment amid the Buenos Aires legislative elections, which have become a decisive test for both Governor Axel Kicillof and President Javier Milei , whose administration is facing corruption allegations and market tensions.

Although smaller and more volatile than the traditional exchange market, the crypto dollar is gaining ground in Argentina. According to Bitso data, 16% of the average local user's portfolio is made up of stablecoins, compared to 12% in Colombia and 8% in Brazil . USDT dominates the market with 78% of purchases, followed by USDC with 7%.

These numbers reflect that, in a context of persistent inflation and expectations of devaluation, Argentines are increasingly turning to the "dollar that never sleeps" as a safe haven and savings alternative.

Today's calm contrasts with a week of high tension in which the government decided to deviate from the floating rate rule and authorized the Treasury to sell foreign currency directly on the market. The move sought to convey control, but also raised questions about the consistency of the exchange rate system , especially amid fragile reserves and a structural demand for dollars.

In this context, the crypto dollar became a key early signal. If it rises sharply amid the vote count, traders will interpret greater exchange rate pressure as imminent. If it remains stable, it will reinforce the idea that the market expects a moderate election result.

A report by JP Morgan, cited in the Buenos Aires City Gazette, defined two scenarios after the Buenos Aires elections:

• Baseline scenario: A narrow victory for Fuerza Patria by less than 5 points or a triumph for La Libertad Avanza. In that case, the dollar could remain stable or even decline before the national elections in October.
• Adverse scenario: A Kirchnerist victory by more than five points. In that case, the exchange rate could rise to the upper limit of the exchange rate band, around $1,460, which would rekindle inflationary pressures and political uncertainty.

The consulting firm Capital Economics agreed that the accumulation of reserves and a stable real exchange rate will be crucial, especially to sustain market confidence, while LCG projected that after the elections, a recalibration of the system will be inevitable .

With 40% of the national electorate concentrated in the province of Buenos Aires, this Sunday's result will not only define the local legislative balance, but will also determine the economic pulse of the coming months.

Meanwhile, the crypto dollar, the one that never sleeps, will continue to be the most immediate reflection of the financial mood of a country cautiously awaiting the verdict of the polls.