Antidumping duty will reduce Mexican tomato exports to the US by 7.9%

The antidumping quota will reduce Mexican tomato exports to the U.S. market by 7.9% in value and 5% in volume in 2025, according to a projection by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

With this, these shipments will decrease to $2.98 billion and 1.83 million tons.

USDA projects that the announced withdrawal from the Tomato Suspension Agreement and the imposition of a 20.91% antidumping duty on nearly all Mexican tomato exports to the United States beginning July 14, 2025, will reduce Mexican exports as growers and exporters adjust to higher costs and market uncertainty.

At the same time, exporters are expected to seek markets where their products benefit from low or zero tariffs, particularly for the fall-winter harvest, in order to offset the tariffs on tomatoes exported to the United States.

Data from the Ministry of Economy show that Mexico's total tomato exports in 2024 were 2.06 million tons, valued at $3.34 billion. Despite production and export challenges, demand remains stable in both the domestic and international markets.

According to the USDA, the continued expansion of protected agriculture, including greenhouses, shade houses, and substrate-based systems, has helped maintain high average yields, tempering what could have been a steeper decline in overall production.

The United States remains Mexico's main tomato export market, with a 93 percent share. Total Mexican exports are projected to reach 1.96 million metric tons in 2025 and a value of $3.2 billion.

In addition, the USDA projects that the scheduled implementation of the antidumping duty will result in reduced investment and planting by export-oriented tomato producers, particularly during the fall-winter production cycle, when export volumes are typically highest.

Their forecasts also include Mexico's tomato production for 2025 at 3.1 million metric tons, down 3% from 2024, primarily due to water shortages and temperature fluctuations limiting production in northern regions, particularly in Sinaloa, the country's top tomato-producing state.

Tomato production decreased 1% in 2024 due to drought, to 3.19 million metric tons, compared to 3.22 million metric tons in 2023.

According to the Mexican government, annual per capita tomato consumption in Mexico remains stable at 12.7 kilograms per person. Tomatoes remain the most consumed vegetable by Mexicans despite the price increase in 2024 caused by weather conditions that affected production during the summer months.

Tomatoes are part of the basic food basket of Mexican homes. They are consumed fresh and in sauces, soups, stews, and main dishes. They are used to balance the sweetness and acidity of various dishes throughout the country.