Titanic duel at the Tour de France: "The way Pogacar rides is sometimes extremely wild"

First hectic days in Normandy and Brittany, then the showdown in the mountains: The 2025 Tour de France has the perfect script for a grand spectacle. There can only be one winner: superstar Tadej Pogacar. Or can he? The Dane Jonas Vingegaard wants to beat the super-Slovene for the third time in the Tour de France. Both stars are competing with outstanding teams. In an interview with ntv.de, former professional and author (On the Road, on sale since July 3) Rick Zabel, who has competed in the Tour de France four times himself, talks about the advantages of both riders, about a possible red herring for Germany's great hope Florian Lipowitz, and his anger about a doping documentary before the start of the world's most important tour.

Hello Mr. Zabel, there can really only be one question before the start of the tour: Can Tadej Pogacar be beaten?

Rick Zabel: Unfortunately, I also have the boring prediction: If all goes wrong, we'll see Tadej Pogacar in the yellow jersey in Paris on July 27. I'd be happy for him, too; I'm a Pogacar fan. But it's true that the first ten days are difficult for the top favorites; it's going to be very hectic, and you have to get through it without crashing.

Looking at the stage profiles, it doesn't seem as if the first few days were particularly problematic...

Yes, at first glance, this looks like a classic Tour, with opportunities for the sprinters in the opening days. But anyone who knows Brittany and Normandy knows that it's not easy riding there. There are lots of small roads, some of them winding. It's also not as flat as you might think. That makes it unpleasant. And the Tour organizers always come up with something new: a winding approach to the sprint, a small hill. If I were racing for the general classification, I'd be a little uneasy too. In the opening days, apart from the small time trial, you have little to gain and a lot to lose.

To minimize the risk of mass crashes shortly before the finish, the three-kilometer rule was extended to five kilometers, which sounds like a good idea.

Yes, this is a big step for rider safety, as it eases the stress in the final stages. I used to be a lead-out rider for the sprinters myself, and it was annoying when the teams for the overall standings stayed in the race until the very end. You want the top favorites to battle it out in the mountains or in the individual time trials and not take themselves out of the race early due to stupid crashes.

You just said you're a Pogacar fan. What fascinates you about him?

I'm really impressed that he shows up all year round and doesn't just ride the Tour. There have rarely been racing cyclists like him who can win the Grand Tours and the Classics. He's just really into cycling. In that respect, he's different from Jonas Vingegaard, who's the typical general classification rider like Lance Armstrong used to be. Apart from the Tour, you hardly ever see him. Pogacar, on the other hand, is present all year round and radiates such an incredible ease. He looks so fresh and is always up for a joke or a cool gesture. But I can understand if you don't like that. Personally, I like these rock star types who use the show stage. I like them more than these blocks of ice that you can't read anything off of.

And Vingegaard is that kind of guy?

He's very straightforward. His interviews are very predictable; he doesn't like being in the spotlight. He's a very meticulous athlete, fighting doggedly for victory. He often retreats to his family. That's also very down-to-earth and likeable. But that doesn't make him as approachable as Pogacar, who also reveals a lot of his private life on social media. What's clear, though, is that both are great racing drivers.

Is there anything that speaks for Vingegaard in the duel for the overall ranking?

He's coming from a different position than Pogacar. That could help him. Almost everyone expects Pogacar to win the Tour. He's in astonishingly strong form; the whole year has been going his way. But if Vingegaard manages to make a few pinpricks – perhaps in the high mountains, where I think he has a slight advantage – and open up a small gap, the momentum that's still clearly in Pogacar's favor could shift. And then there's also history, which could help him.

Like that?

There are two key moments for Vingegaard in this Tour. He beat Pogacar in the mountain time trial two years ago, and one stage later, at the Col de la Loze, Pogi completely collapsed. You may remember him saying, "I'm gone, I'm dead." This year, there's another mountain time trial, and the route also includes the Col de la Loze. Vingegaard will certainly be confident at the start of these stages.

And Pogacar, is he still concerned about this?

Yes, I think he'll definitely still have that in the back of his mind. But it's certainly an interesting question how he handles it. Will he approach these stages with respect and caution, or will he seek revenge? In any case, he'll have to reckon with a confident opponent. Pogacar's decision will depend primarily on his form on the day. If one of them has a weak day, the other will strike mercilessly. But Pogacar will be keen to ensure that such moments don't happen again.

Did he make mistakes?

Two years ago, Vingegaard was simply the stronger rider; he has nothing to reproach himself for. But it's true that the relaxed attitude we admire in Pogacar can also be a weakness. Sometimes, in his enthusiasm, something slips through his fingers. We'll never see a hunger pang from Vingegaard, for example; he's far too focused for that. And with Pogacar, there's also the way he races. It's sometimes extremely wild, like at the World Championships last year when he attacked with 100 kilometers to go. You think to yourself: this can't possibly work, but it does. But this year at the Amstel Gold Race, it just didn't work out. He can really only beat himself.

Let’s come to the team factor: Who has the strongest crew at their side?

In my opinion, Pogi has the slightly better team at UAE, with Joao Almeida, Adam Yates, Marc Soler, Tim Wellens, who is in the form of his life, and of course Nils Politt, who is particularly valuable on the flat stages. There are so many riders who can even finish in the top ten, it's quite remarkable. But Visma-Lease-a-Bike is also incredibly strong, with Sepp Kuss and Giro winner Simon Yates. And this team is tactically outstanding.

How much does the team actually contribute to the captain’s success?

That's difficult to measure, of course. But I would say that a guy like Pogacar makes up the last 20 percent on his own, but that he also benefits 80 percent from the work of his teammates. If he were alone, he wouldn't be as strong. That's clear. He would certainly survive a mountain finish, but not an entire Tour. The important teamwork begins at the start, which you don't really get to see on TV. The team controls who is allowed to go away and who isn't. The team organizes the pace in the peloton. If you're constantly out in the wind trying to catch up with leading groups, your legs won't be as good by the end.

But how are the roles of helpers changing in the mountains?

The helpers in the mountains are especially important when something goes wrong. When the captain is having a bad day or has a breakdown. A popular tactic, however, is to send a rider to the lead group, who can then push on when a descent comes or when speed is needed in an intermediate valley. The captain can then resupply, eat, drink, and refuel, without having to worry about the pace. But when things really get heated between the captains, no one can keep up anyway.

When we talk about the captains, we're only talking about Pogacar and Vingegaard. Are Remco Evenepoel and Red Bull leader Primoz Roglic out of the running for the win?

No, people like to talk about the three or four favorites. But Pogacar and Vingegaard are in a whole different league. Roglic may have won the Vuelta last year, but the other two weren't at the start, and his Giro this year wasn't convincing. He's not getting any younger, and that means he's not getting any better. Things are a little different with Evenepoel. I'm betting on him winning the early individual time trial and possibly taking the yellow jersey. That could give him a boost. But at the recent Dauphiné, he was clearly outmatched in the mountains in a duel with Pogacar and Vingegaard. Even our German hopeful Florian Lipowitz was much stronger. I was surprised; I had expected Evenepoel to be stronger, also because he's lost more weight compared to last year.

Lipowitz is a good example. He's been performing outstandingly recently and has even held his own with the top stars. Is Red Bull doing itself a favor by not making him captain and instead relying on Roglic?

No, I think it's smart. And there's a difference between what you communicate in the media and what the actual tactics are. Roglic has the advantage of knowing the stress of the Tour de France. Lipowitz will have to deal with that first, but his form is truly exceptional. I can't imagine Red Bull sacrificing Lipowitz for Roglic; I'd rather see him as a kind of co-captain internally. I think he's absolutely a contender for a top-ten finish, maybe even a top-five finish. But it's definitely an exciting combination with Roglic. But I would definitely do the same without pushing Lipowitz forward for now. And Red Bull will certainly be keeping in mind that he might be stronger.

In your podcast with Jan Ullrich, you also included Emmanuel Buchmann as a surprise. Why exactly?

He's in good shape and can do his own thing with Team Cofidis. That's good for him. Not much has been said about him so far. He likes that, because it's similar to Vingegaard and he doesn't like being in the spotlight. At Red Bull before, it was all a bit too much—the pressure from the team, from the public, but also the pressure he put on himself.

In your recent podcast, you also talked about the new ARD doping documentary and expressed your annoyance that it was released before the Tour de France again…

Yes, that keeps fueling this general suspicion that everyone is doping. And that's why there's no point watching the Tour. That annoys me. But what's really important to me is that we shouldn't turn a blind eye to this issue. That we shouldn't be so naive as to believe that everyone is clean. There will always be riders who break the rules. But I think our sport is getting more of a spotlight than other sports, even if I get criticized for this opinion. You see, it's true that there isn't a single interview that doesn't talk about doping. About Jan Ullrich or my father. About all these topics. At some point, everything has been said. But what I can say again with conviction is that there is no systematic doping. There wasn't any of that on any team I've been on. And what's also important to me is that the documentary is still important, but I also see things that I'm missing.

What would you have wanted from the documentary?

Cycling has done a lot in recent years to transform its image and to vigorously take up the fight against doping. There's the Anti-Doping Administration and Management System (ADMAS), which is very restrictive; we as athletes have to report our whereabouts daily to be ready for possible tests. Then there's the blood passport, which, as far as I know, is unique to us. If there are any anomalies, we react immediately. And we are tested independently, including by WADA.

Back to the documentary: some very good things were revealed. For example, that the drug Aicar is on the doping list, but 130 other similar substances are not. Or that "Operation Aderlass" hasn't been solved to this day. Or that blood doping instruments are so easy to buy. These are all very good points. I completely agree with Hajo Seppelt and his team. But I think the general suspicion is being fed too strongly. I would have liked to have seen a clean athlete included. We have to keep our eyes open, absolutely, but we should also report on the positive developments.

In the podcast with Jan Ullrich, you also said that it's understandable why the generation of top riders is breaking the records of the doped stars of the past. Why?

For one thing, the equipment has improved significantly, and training science is much more advanced than it was a few years ago. But the absolute boost for performance is nutrition, which has evolved enormously. The pros know exactly that at around 300 watts per hour, they need to consume 100 to 120 grams of carbohydrates. Your body has to cope with that first; you need to train your stomach to avoid problems with diarrhea. But you have to sip those drinks; they're your fuel, your gasoline.

Tobias Nordmann spoke with Rick Zabel